As the Marcellus/Utica became the U.S.’s premier natural gas production region in the 2010s, a larger portion of its output headed out of the Northeast. An increasingly important part of the story has involved greater demand for gas from within the Northeast, especially the power sector.
After being in virtual limbo the past couple of years, the U.S. Northeast gas market is reawakening. New pipeline development is, well, no longer a pipe dream. Today, we begin a series evaluating the impacts of these changing fundamentals on the Northeast gas market outlook.
For the past several years, a potent combination of market developments has incentivized PADD 2/Midwest refiners — and their midstream partners — to move increasing volumes of refined products east. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what’s been happening lately and how it’s affecting refiners.
The Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) has been transformative. Originally built as a west-to-east pipeline, its main job was to give Rockies natural gas a way to reach premium markets in the Midwest and the Northeast. But by the time it was constructed, surging production in the Marcellus and Utica shales had overwhelmed the need for Rockies gas in the East, and REX evolved to become a major outlet for Appalachian gas to the Midcontinent. Now, REX has moved beyond its first two incarnations, and its owner, Tallgrass Energy, has announced plans to build a greenfield pipeline that would connect REX and the markets it serves with the prolific Permian Basin, 900 miles south of the existing mainline. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss REX’s history, where it stands today, and how a new pipeline connection with the Permian might fit into its evolving strategy.
The March appropriations bill passed by Congress and signed by President Biden to fund the federal government mandated the emptying of the federal gasoline reserve in fiscal year 2024, which concludes September 30, followed by its eventual closure. That means about 1 MMbbl — 42 MM gallons — of gasoline will find its way to the market in the next few months, or in as little as a few weeks. The Department of Energy (DOE) is planning to distribute those barrels by the end of June to help keep a lid on gasoline prices ahead of the July 4 holiday and into the heart of the summer driving season. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the decision to close the reserve and the potential impact of those barrels hitting the market.
The uncertainties around solar power are well understood — when the sun doesn’t shine as much as expected, power grids that rely heavily on that generation must turn elsewhere to meet consumer demand. And while a shortfall in solar generation can be challenging to navigate, the difference between actual and forecast levels is typically only a few percentage points and power grids are usually ready and able to make up any difference. But what happens when the sun is largely obscured by the moon for several hours across a wide swath of the country? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the impact of the October 14 partial eclipse, preview the path of the April 8 total eclipse, and outline the steps being taken to ensure that power grids are ready for it.
It’s the 10-year anniversary of a polar vortex winter that’s seared into the memories of every propaner who lived through it. Shortages. High prices. Government inquiries. Sure, there were difficulties during that winter in the markets for natural gas and fuel oil too, but it was particularly bad for propane. It seemed like a perfect storm hit the propane market right where it hurt the most — in the heart of propane country: the Upper Midwest and the Northeast. A lot has changed since then, but it’s important to look back at what went wrong, what’s been done to make a repeat of that chaotic winter far less likely, and what those events still mean for the propane market today.
Appalachian natural gas producers and marketers are adapting to a new status quo — a world where new pipeline takeaway capacity out of the Northeast is hard to come by and is more or less capped ad infinitum. Without the assurance of pipeline expansions, regional gas producers are no longer drilling with abandon in hopes that the capacity will eventually get built. Instead, producers are practicing restraint by slowing drilling activity, delaying completions and choking back producing wells to manage their inventory during periods of lower demand and prices. In today’s RBN blog, we consider what this new playbook will mean for pricing trends in the supply basin.
Just as homeowners in parts of the Northeast are thinking about turning on the heat again, the market for heating oil, diesel and other middle distillates in PADD 1 is unusually tight. Inventories are hovering near their five-year lows; prices are up sharply; and the near-term prospects for rebuilding stocks are modest at best. For one thing, the import-dependent region can’t rely on them as much as it used to; for another, at least a couple of in-region and nearby Canadian refineries the Northeast counts on are offline for major turnarounds. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the latest developments in PADD 1’s distillates market.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) revived Mountain Valley Pipeline’s (MVP) prospects of being completed this year, but the outlook for new, large-scale natural gas takeaway projects in the Northeast beyond MVP hasn’t changed. What has changed, however, is how Appalachian natural gas-focused producers respond to pipeline constraints and lower prices. Gone are the days of drilling with abandon, crushing supply prices and assuming the necessary pipeline capacity will eventually get built. Instead, producers have demonstrated a willingness to slow drilling activity, delay completions and choke back producing wells in the short-term to manage their inventory during periods of lower gas prices. In today’s RBN blog, we lay out our view of what that shift in producer behavior will mean for Northeast supply, demand and pricing trends in the long-term.
