Japan

The Trump administration is trying to breathe new life into the long-dormant Alaska LNG project, talking up its strengths and encouraging potential Asian customers and investors to consider it. But the project, a multibillion-dollar plan to pipe natural gas from Alaska’s North Slope to Anchorage and Cook Inlet for liquefaction and export, faces huge financial and administrative hurdles, plus the challenges of building it in Alaska’s rugged terrain and often-harsh climate. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine Alaska LNG’s competitive position and whether its reduced shipping costs, coupled with federal support, might be sufficient to outweigh the construction costs and other major obstacles the project faces. 

The long-term contract has been the cornerstone of the global LNG industry since its inception. Such contracts between upstream LNG producers and downstream utility companies have provided buyers with security of supply over a protracted period while guaranteeing producers sufficient income to justify the investment in export facilities and shipping fleets. But times are changing, with significant LNG volumes under long-term contracts scheduled to expire by 2031. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the potential implications for LNG buyers and producers around the world, the options available to them, and how their choices may impact LNG commercial models. 

After a long decline, crude oil production on Alaska’s North Slope is poised to increase, and it’s possible that by the early 2030s production could return to levels not seen since the turn of the century. It’s an exciting development for the 49th state, but where will all that oil go? With refining capacity on the decline in California, which has typically handled a lot of Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude, it’s not an easy answer. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the locations where ANS oil production could land — one of the many essential topics covered in our upcoming Future of Fuels report. 

About 60% of global LNG imports in 2023 came from only three countries — Australia, Qatar and the U.S. — sometimes dubbed the “LNG Trinity.” All three are geographically remote from each other and differ considerably in terms of configuration, politics, economics and strategy. But all three are looking to consolidate and potentially grow their global presence at a time when expectations regarding future LNG demand are evolving and the role of natural gas is shifting to become increasingly complementary to intermittent renewable sources. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the differences within the LNG Trinity and how they may impact — and be impacted by — developments in the global gas market. 

LNG commerce is composed of two primary models. One is the traditional point-to-point model, on which the industry was founded and still accounts for more than 60% of LNG trade. More recently, the portfolio model has emerged, pursued by upstream oil and gas majors, that would allow them to monetize their gas reserves by converting them to LNG and shipping the product worldwide in vessels under their control — an attractive strategy that also would allow them to increase their exposure in the LNG market to take advantage of international arbitrage opportunities. As such, they are always long in LNG and in the ships required to move it. However, the portfolio model is being infiltrated by a buyer community looking to become short-side portfolio players and increasingly committing to long-term offtake agreements or FOB sales, then shipping LNG not only to meet their domestic market needs but to take advantage of regional pricing differentials. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the rise of the short-side portfolio player model and ask who might prevail in a potential clash of titans over market share and dominance. 

Many have argued that U.S.-sourced LNG can be instrumental in combating climate change by helping countries around the world replace coal-fired generation with natural gas-fired power. While this argument carries a lot of force in the eyes of many politicians and LNG marketers, the questions of exactly how — and to what extent — LNG can replace coal need to be asked. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the challenges that the expanded use of LNG faces in countries with high coal utilization and the possible means of overcoming them. 

LNG export projects looking to take a positive final investment decision (FID) need to sell a high proportion of their nameplate capacity under long-term contracts to ensure sufficient cash flows to underpin the project and obtain financing. U.S.-based projects (new and expansions) totaling more than 350 million tons per annum (MMtpa, 48.3 Bcf/) — against a current global market of 400 MMtpa (52.9 Bcf/d) — are vying for creditworthy offtakers from multiple markets in their pre-FID deliberations. The sense of urgency among project sponsors has been boosted by the Russia/Ukraine war and a potentially resurgent Chinese economy, both of which should promise a bright future for new projects. Plenty of those have reached FID in the last couple of years, but what is holding others back from taking the same step? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at some of the factors impacting those decisions and the long-term implications that flow from them. 

Clean ammonia, which is produced by reacting clean hydrogen with nitrogen and capturing and sequestering the resulting carbon dioxide (CO2), is gaining momentum. In just the past few months, several more new clean ammonia production projects have been proposed along the U.S. Gulf Coast, many of them made possible by commitments from Japanese and South Korean companies that see the low-carbon fuel as an important part of the Far East’s future energy mix. Taken as a group, the dozen-plus projects now under development have the potential to produce tens of millions of tons of clean ammonia annually, and to create yet another massive energy-export market for U.S. producers. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the new projects moving forward — and one being put on hold — and what’s driving the clean ammonia market.

2022 was a particularly significant year for the global LNG industry, distinguished by a sharp increase in LNG demand in Europe tied to the reduction in flows of Russian pipeline gas after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Whereas Europe had historically been the last market option for many LNG sellers, it became the most highly priced market in the world and pulled in LNG from multiple locations, including a cargo from Australia delivered in October. Paying premium prices enabled European buyers to fill the continent’s underground storage at an unprecedented rate — as of mid-January, storage there was over 80% full. A mild winter, at least to date, coupled with conservation efforts and fuel switching have reduced European natural gas demand by 10% to 15% and helped avoid a gas shortage. Now, gas prices (and LNG cargo prices) have fallen to pre-invasion levels and prompted market observers to suggest that, with China emerging from pandemic-related lockdowns, Asia may start pulling large volumes of LNG its way. In today’s RBN blog, we examine LNG cargo movements within the Asia Pacific and Atlantic regions and what rising Asian demand could mean for European gas supplies going forward.

For many, coal has become a hydrocarbon non grata in recent years, mostly due to the considerable amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) generated when it is burned to produce electric power or heat. But what if, instead of combusting coal on its own, coal plants were co-fired by a combination of environmentally friendly versions of ammonia and the volumes of CO2 generated were way less? And what if, through the 2030s and ’40s, the ratio of fuels used in these coal-and-ammonia-fired power plants shifted away from coal and toward ammonia, and by mid-century the plants were fueled only by “green” or “blue” ammonia, which generates little or no CO2? It may sound too good to be true — heck, it may well turn out to be! But there is a lot of interest in the idea, especially in Japan, where coal still retains a big share of the power generation mix. In today’s RBN blog, we continue to look at the prospects for environmentally friendly hydrogen (H2) — and ammonia, an H2 carrier — in the power generation sector.