global gas

LNG feedgas demand has averaged a record of about 12 Bcf/d this summer and fall. While that may sound like an impressive number (and it is), it could increase significantly — even without new capacity additions — over the next few months as seasonal demand rises and maintenance activity slows. And that’s just for starters. Next year, the first of several planned LNG export terminals and expansions of existing ones will start commissioning, and by the end of this decade feedgas demand may well double. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how current LNG feedgas demand stacks up compared to past years, the factors driving current demand, and the potential for additional upside.

With the war in Ukraine ongoing and Europe largely cut off or quitting Russian natural gas imports, many feared that global gas prices would skyrocket this winter, but prices have fizzled out instead and are at their lowest level since September 2021. That’s not to say gas prices are low, as they are still well above historic norms and high enough to incentivize LNG imports and the development of future LNG capacity. But despite losing its largest gas supplier, and prices running up in the months ahead of this winter, Europe appears to be in much better shape than it was last winter and gas prices have been relatively calm and on the downswing. So why is that? The difference between this winter and last largely boils down to storage inventories and the ability to attract LNG cargoes. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the European gas market, the impact of U.S. LNG supplies, and what it all means for developing LNG projects.

Thanks to a warm start to the season and low Asian demand for LNG, Europe has so far been able to stave off a worst-case scenario for natural gas supply this winter. Still, the European market is keeping a keen eye on the years ahead, when the continent will need to rely on new sources of LNG to meet demand and refill inventories with little chance of any Russian gas. The call for more LNG has ushered in a new wave of export-project development, with two U.S. projects reaching a positive final investment decision (FID) this year and LNG offtakers in Europe and elsewhere committing to an incredible 37 MMtpa (4.9 Bcf/d) of long-term contracts from pre-FID sites in North America. This momentum has revived a number of projects from the COVID-induced wasteland, including Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on U.S. LNG projects by taking a closer look at Port Arthur, the one most likely to take FID next.

The need for more LNG export capacity, driven both by Europe’s push to wean itself off Russian gas and long-term Asian demand growth, is resulting in a new wave of development. Two major U.S. projects have reached a positive final investment decision (FID) in the past six months and more are likely to do so soon, both in the U.S. and elsewhere. But conventional export terminals take time to build, leading at least some, like New Fortress Energy, to explore the potential for floating LNG (FLNG) facilities — basically, an LNG export terminal located on the topside of a large tanker — which can bring new capacity online faster, much like the floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) that are now boosting European import capacity. In today’s RBN blog, we take a look at FLNGs, what’s already out there, and what could be coming to North America in the next few years.

Without a doubt, the two biggest changes to U.S. natural gas markets in the last 15 years have been the Shale Revolution and the development of LNG exports. These completely upended the way gas flowed in this country, with the Northeast now home to the largest gas-producing basin and the Gulf Coast — including its fleet of LNG export terminals — now the U.S.’s largest demand center. Production growth in the Marcellus/Utica has stalled, however, largely due to the regulatory and legal challenges associated with building new pipeline takeaway capacity. One possible fix would be a new East Coast LNG terminal, which in addition to having easy access to cheap, almost-local gas would also be close to gas-hungry European markets. But just how likely is such a project? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the advantages and hurdles of developing LNG export capacity on the East Coast.

Total U.S. LNG export capacity is around 12 Bcf/d, including the still-commissioning-but-nearly-complete Calcasieu Pass. About 13.5 Bcf/d of U.S. natural gas supplies, or feedgas, is required to produce that much LNG, but feedgas demand has averaged just 10.5 Bcf/d over the past week despite still-soaring global gas prices and an undersupplied global LNG market. Two U.S. terminals are currently offline: Freeport LNG, which has been out of service since an explosion and fire in June, and now Cove Point LNG, which shut for annual maintenance October 1. Beyond those outages, which have taken about 2.75 Bcf/d of demand out of commission, LNG feedgas volumes have been extremely volatile, swinging as much as 2 Bcf/d within a week. Don’t expect this to last, however — with winter approaching, the return of both Freeport and Cove Point on the horizon, and the full startup of Calcasieu Pass in sight, feedgas demand will likely rise to new heights and soon consistently top 13 Bcf/d. In today’s RBN blog we take a closer look at the recent volatility in LNG feedgas and the potential demand coming this winter.

The world needs more LNG and the U.S. is answering that call. Two U.S. liquefaction projects, Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage III, have already reached a final investment decision (FID) on a combined 23.3 MMtpa (3.1 Bcf/d) of export capacity, which will be online by mid-decade. But by the looks of it, we are just getting started. Next up could be NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG, which has sold 75% of its first two trains’ capacity — enough to take FID, possibly by the end of the year. If it moves forward, not only will the project add another 10.8 MMtpa (1.43 Bcf/d) or more of export capacity to the Gulf Coast, it could also come with a new carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) facility, which has long been a selling point for the project. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on the U.S. LNG projects most likely to move forward, this time with a look at Rio Grande LNG.

It’s been another tumultuous few months for natural gas prices, particularly amid what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called Russia’s war on Europe’s energy and economy.  Europe is staring down aggressive curtailments of Russian gas supplies and rising consumer utility bills, necessitating austerity measures and beyond to bail out consumers and utilities and prevent a dangerous shortfall this winter. Prices in continental Europe have now topped $20/MMBtu for a year, higher than the previous single-day record. On top of the elevated prices, outrageous spikes higher and lower have become a semi-regular occurrence as the gas market struggles to find balance. And high prices and volatility are not going anywhere anytime soon as Europe braces for a winter with little or even no Russian gas. In today’s RBN blog we look at European gas prices, the latest energy policy proposal from the EC and how U.S. LNG exports fit into the ongoing crisis.

Escalating Russian aggression and LNG supply shortfalls, exacerbated by outages in the U.S. and Australia, have put the pressure back on international gas markets and sent prices in Europe and Asia back toward their winter highs. Around the world, high prices have pushed some end users out of the LNG market and spurred on the global, cross-commodity energy shortage that has had utilities and governments scrambling, sometimes unsuccessfully, to keep the power on. The European Union (EU) is pushing its members to reduce gas consumption by 15% through winter and parts of Europe face austerity measures. Some European countries are turning back to coal generation as the continent prepares for the prospect of a winter with less — or potentially even no — Russian gas. In today’s RBN blog, we look at where things stand in the international gas market and the ramifications for the winter ahead and beyond.

Europe’s push to reduce and eventually eliminate its reliance on Russia for natural gas has pushed LNG imports back into the forefront of Europe’s long-term energy plan. This year, with European natural gas prices trading above Asian prices, the continent has been able to attract an incredible amount of LNG, with imports at record levels this winter and sitting just shy of those records this spring. That helped mitigate some of the risks to energy reliability from Russian aggression, at least until the Freeport LNG outage and the latest Russian gas curtailments, but import capacity in Europe was maxed out last winter and more LNG imports can’t happen in the long term without more import capacity. Most of the LNG terminals in Europe are operating at full capacity or don’t have enough market access on the other side of the pipe to take more. While plans to build new import terminals are underway, those take time, and lots of it, so Europe is also pursuing a more immediate option, floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) — basically, an LNG import terminal on a ship. In today’s RBN blog, we take a look at all things FSRU, from what and where they are to the recent deals with European offtakers.