- Blog

Double Trouble - EPA's RVO Proposal Would Raise Feedstock Prices, Compliance Costs

Author Robert Auers

The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026-27 did more than just set renewable fuel mandates for the next two years, they included dramatic shifts in the way that imported fuels and feedstocks are handled and raised the likelihood of higher compliance costs during a time in which the federal government has been focused on keeping prices under control. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the critical changes that will affect imported biofuels and feedstocks and the potential cost impact. 

- Blog

On The Road Again - Cellulosic Biofuel Industry Rebounds With Focus on Biogas, Heavy-Duty Trucking

A primary objective of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) implemented in 2007 was to stimulate the production of at least 16 billion gallons/year of gasoline and diesel made from cellulosic biomass, or non-food crops and waste biomass like corn stalks, corncobs, straw, wood, wood byproducts and animal manure. But the vision of making gasoline from wood chips never materialized and today’s cellulosic biofuel is a whole different ballgame. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the evolution of cellulosic biofuels and the D3 Renewable Identification Number, aka the D3 RIN. 

- Blog

The End of the Innocence - Nascent SAF Market May Face Turbulence Under Trump Administration

Author Housley Carr

Over the past few years, tax credits and other incentives — both financial and regulatory — have breathed life into the U.S. market for sustainable aviation fuel, whose production is now ramping up, with more SAF capacity on the way. But the sector may experience turbulence under the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged to undo much of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and pull back on the stepped-up decarbonization efforts that helped define the Biden presidency. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the latest developments in the SAF space and the choppiness the still-fledgling sector may soon face. 

- Blog

Something's Gotta Give - Five Ways the Market Could React to Surging Renewable Diesel Output, RIN Generation

Renewable diesel (RD) production has been surging this year, far surpassing blending mandates established by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). But there may be storm clouds on the horizon. The jump in RD production has led to excess generation of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), the tool used to ensure compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), impacting RD economics. With RD production set to move even higher in 2024 amid already-declining margins, it has left some to wonder how the market will come back into balance. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the growth in RD production, the resulting impact on RIN volumes and prices, and how things could shake out next year. 

- Blog

Just Dropped In - Renewable Naphtha Likely to Play Increasing Role in Decarbonization Efforts

The push to decarbonize frequently focuses on the transportation sector, which is responsible for the largest share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. That has led to increased blending of ethanol into gasoline and the development of several alternative fuels, most notably renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). But as production of those two fuels accelerates, an often-overlooked byproduct of their creation is beginning to attract more attention: renewable naphtha. In today’s RBN blog, we explain the similarities and differences between traditional naphtha and renewable naphtha, look at how renewable naphtha is produced, and show how it can be used to help refiners, petrochemical companies and hydrogen producers meet their sustainability goals and reduce the carbon intensity (CI) of their products.

- Blog

Fuel Rollercoaster - Anticipating the Twists and Turns Ahead in U.S. and Global Product Markets

Author John Auers

A wide range of ever-changing economic and other forces — domestic and international — are constantly impacting the U.S. refinery complex, for good and for bad. Fluctuations in crude oil supply and prices. Ups and downs in demand for refined products. Refinery closures and expansions. And don’t forget this: the pace of the much-discussed transition to lower-carbon energy sources. There’s a lot at play in the world of gasoline, middle distillates and resid — renewable fuels too — and while industry players can’t fully anticipate what’s next in the refined-product roller coaster ahead, it’s critically important to keep up with the latest developments and to have a deep understanding of the many factors influencing crude oil and fuel markets — and the relationships among those drivers. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the key findings in a newly released update to Future of Fuels, an in-depth report by RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice on everything you need to know about U.S. and global supply and demand for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and biofuels over the short, medium and long term.

- Blog

Join Together - Mastering Oil, Gas and NGL Market Links Is Key to Surviving New Era in Energy

Author Housley Carr

The energy industry is evolving rapidly, spun forward by a wide range of forces: a pandemic and its aftershocks, tensions with China, a land war in Europe and a push to decarbonize, to name just a few. What’s emerged in the last couple of years is an industry starkly different than the one that existed before. Every link in the value chain — from the producers upstream, to midstreamers, to the refiners and exporters downstream — has had to drastically adjust their strategies and, if anything, these changes have only intensified the connectivity across the markets for crude oil, natural gas, NGLs and refined products. It has underscored the need for industry participants to see and understand those links and how they impact their businesses. There’s a lot at stake. The energy industry of the mid-2020s — yes, we’re already in the middle third of the decade! — is vastly different, and so are the challenges, as we examine in today’s RBN blog.

- Blog

It's Not Enough, Part 2 - Sustainable Aviation Fuel Can Only Fly With More Incentives

It seems logical that shifting over time to aviation fuel with a lower carbon footprint would represent the most practical way for the global airline industry to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But for that shift to happen, there needs to be an economic rationale for producing sustainable aviation fuel and, despite a seemingly generous production credit for SAF in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), that rationale is a least a little shaky when compared to renewable diesel (RD) credits available today. In today’s RBN blog, we conclude our two-part series on SAF with an examination of RD and SAF economics (which are remarkably similar), the degree to which existing SAF incentives may fall short of RD, and what it all means for SAF producers and production.

- Blog

It's Not Enough - SAF Production Will Need More Than the IRA Tax Credit to Really Take Off

Around the world, there’s a strong push to put aviation on a more sustainable footing and reduce the industry’s greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint. Increasing the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) — a close cousin of renewable diesel (RD) — is key to this effort. But while the economic case for producing RD in the U.S. has been compelling for some time thanks to government subsidies, the returns on investment for producing SAF appear more dubious, despite a seemingly generous production tax credit for SAF in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the incentive for making jet fuel is likely too small — and too short-lived — to overcome the higher cost of production for SAF compared to RD, and additional incentives may be needed to spur meaningful increases in SAF production.