It’s been eight weeks since the steady flow of crude oil and refined product tankers out of the Persian Gulf ended, and the impacts on refineries and product suppliers in key parts of the world are becoming clearer. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the state of refining in the U.S., Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
Energy market executives expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to eventually normalize, although most believe it will take time, according to an update to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ quarterly survey published April 23. Of the executives surveyed, 20% expect traffic through the strait to return to normal levels during May, 39% expect recovery by August, 26% by November and 14% later than that.
The West Coast, particularly California, has been the U.S. region hardest hit by the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, particularly regarding the Golden State’s ability to obtain refined product imports. Today, we discuss the impact of the closure.
U.S. refineries are, of course, far less dependent on crude oil from the Middle East than they were before the Shale Revolution. But the cutoff in oil supplies from the Persian Gulf is forcing several U.S. refiners to look elsewhere for the mostly medium-sour crude they had been sourcing from the region.
The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz isn’t just stranding significant volumes of refined products in the Persian Gulf. It’s also resulting in potentially extensive and long-lasting damage to some refineries there and trapping crude oil that Asian refiners depend on.
A lot of attention has been paid to the massive volumes of crude oil and LNG currently trapped in the Persian Gulf. What’s sometimes overlooked, however, is that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also major exporters of refined products, and that they and Qatar also send out copious amounts of LPG.
