Export

With Canadian crude oil production continuing to grow, the industry and politicians are considering options to add pipeline export capacity out of Western Canada. In today’s RBN blog, the second of a series, we review the major pipeline projects that have expanded markets for Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin crude oil since 2010, and how those expansions lined up with supply growth.

In the early 2000s, prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) were becoming increasingly disconnected from global fundamentals. WTI reflected conditions in the Midcontinent at the Cushing, OK, crude oil storage hub, where bottlenecks repeatedly distorted its value. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how the problem contributed to the creation of the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) 16 years ago, how the index has evolved and whether it remains relevant today. 

In their second-quarter earnings presentation last week, Energy Transfer said that they and their joint venture (JV) partners, Satellite Petrochemical, expect the first commissioning cargoes from their new 180-Mb/d ethane export facility in Nederland, TX — formally known as Orbit Gulf Coast NGL Exports LLC — to begin in November, only three months from now. This new outlet for U.S.-sourced ethane comes at a time when production of oil, gas, and NGLs faces near-term declines due to reduced drilling activity resulting from low crude prices. With those declines, will there be enough ethane supply to meet the capacity of the new Orbit export dock and other upcoming ethane-related projects? The short answer is, yes … for the right price. Today, we examine the latest supply and demand dynamics shaping the U.S. ethane market.   

Mexican demand for motor gasoline and diesel has plummeted this spring due to COVID-19 — so has demand for LPG. So far, Pemex — Mexico’s state-owned energy company and by far the country’s largest supplier of these commodities — has responded by slashing how much gasoline, diesel and LPG it is importing from the U.S. and holding its own production steady, despite the fact that Pemex’s refining margins are now deep in negative territory. What does Pemex’s focus on money-losing refining mean for U.S. exports to Mexico going forward? Today, we begin a short series on the ongoing competition between U.S. refiners and Pemex for market share south of the border.

Thanks to the shale revolution, U.S. refiners have spent the better part of the last two years achieving milestones in export volumes and run rates. The U.S. exported record volumes of gasoline and diesel last year. Much of that newfound international market share came at the expense of ailing refining complexes in Latin America, particularly in Mexico. That worked out great for U.S. refiners on the Gulf Coast, who could load up a tanker of fuel and have it delivered within a matter of days. Now the market on both sides of the border is shifting; the political landscape has changed in Mexico and gasoline demand growth in the U.S. is threatened by higher oil prices. Today, we lay out factors impacting exports and demand in the U.S. gasoline market.

Corpus Christi, TX, is quickly becoming a strategic hub for U.S. crude oil exports. Since the repeal of the crude oil export ban in December 2015, crude exports from the Sparkling City by the Sea have increased to nearly 500 Mb/d — and that may be just the beginning. Numerous pipeline and terminal projects have been announced to receive, store and ship out a lot more crude from the Permian and Eagle Ford shale plays, with an increasing share of those barrels destined for the international market. Today, we discuss recent developments in crude exports out of South Texas.

Just a month ago, the CME/NYMEX Henry Hub prompt natural gas futures contract was trading at a six-month high of $3.21/MMBtu (on November 10), and the U.S. gas storage inventory was at a three-year low, setting the stage for a bullish winter — assuming normal wintry weather. Since then, the prompt-month contract has tumbled about 50 cents to a settle of $2.715/MMBtu as of this Wednesday. In that time, temperatures fell across the country and seasonal demand for heating homes and businesses kicked in, and LNG exports ticked up slightly. But supply also grew by a lot, with natural gas production surging by 1.0 Bcf/d since then to a new record high of 76.9 Bcf/d just this past Monday. How did the fundamentals shake out in November, and what do current fundamentals mean for the balance of winter? Today, we reconcile these latest shifts in gas market fundamentals.

As if the international market for liquefied natural gas weren’t complicated enough, add the facts that 1) the LNG shipped from various export terminals differs in chemical composition, and 2) the specifications for the natural gas consumed by various countries around the world differ too. In other words, you can’t assume that the heating value and other important characteristics of the super-cooled gas in the LNG shipped from exporting country A will align with the gas specs enforced in importing country B. That’s a big deal to LNG exporters and traders who would like to be able to ship their LNG to wherever it would make the most money, but who need to consider a lot more. Today, we look into the increasing significance of LNG/gas spec differences as the old rules of the LNG market break down.

The U.S. has a surplus of light hydrocarbon liquids – much of it in the form of field condensate produced at the wellhead and plant condensate extracted from natural gas at processing plants. Declining domestic demand leaves both field and plant condensate increasingly reliant on export markets. Trouble is those export markets are far from secure and the oil price crash isn’t making things any easier. Today we preview RBN’s latest Drill Down report – a deep dive into the supply and demand balance for field and plant condensate.

A week or so ago in Part IV of the Marcellus Changes Everything series, we noted that by 2016 there would be a summer surplus of natural gas production from the Marcellus of around 3 Bcf/d. We pointed to Dominion’s Cove Point LNG proposed export terminal on the Chesapeake Bay as one likely outlet for the surplus. Dominion’s proposal is one of 14 LNG terminals being reviewed by the government for an export permit. Today we investigate how many of these terminals will be built and whether the natural gas markets sustain can such a high level of exports?