Comeback Story? – New Pipelines Boost Permian Natural Gas Economics, But Oil Still Drives Activity

The Permian has up to 11 Bcf/d of new natural gas takeaway capacity scheduled to enter service through the end of 2029, with still more coming in the early 2030s. The central question is whether Permian crude oil production will generate enough associated gas to fill that capacity and, if so, how quickly. The short answer is there appears to be enough incremental capacity to provide a near-term runway, but higher gas prices and new egress are not materially changing most producers’ oil-led development strategies. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss how producers may respond to the new gas pipelines planned for the Permian.

This is the third blog in our series on the outlook for major U.S. producing basins, starting with the largest: the Permian. In our first blog, we covered the major gas pipeline projects expected to enter service this year and next. Together, the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) expansion, Hugh Brinson Pipeline and Blackcomb Pipeline will add about 5.3 Bcf/d of egress capacity from the Waha area. Our forecast calls for Permian production to grow by 11.2 Bcf/d from 2026-36, with the strongest growth concentrated in 2027-29. That growth could absorb a meaningful portion of the new takeaway over time, particularly as LNG and other Gulf Coast demand expands. Given the scale and timing of the projects, however, some pipelines could initially operate below capacity rather than being fully utilized from the start.

Kinder Morgan’s GCX expansion (0.57 Bcf/d; aqua-blue line in Figure 1 below) is already flowing more gas to the Agua Dulce Hub in South Texas. The expansion lifted the pipeline’s total capacity to 2.6 Bcf/d and has helped the Waha Hub recover from negative prices, though it has not fully resolved Permian takeaway constraints. Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline (medium-blue line) is ramping up flows to Northeast Texas and will eventually have a capacity of 2.2 Bcf/d. The Blackcomb Pipeline (dashed red line) is still in the commissioning process but is expected to enter full commercial service by the end of this year, providing an additional 2.5 Bcf/d of takeaway to Agua Dulce, while the planned 2.4-Bcf/d Traverse Pipeline (dashed light-pink line) will provide onward access from Agua Dulce to the Katy/Houston area in 2027.