ConocoPhillips

The fact is, many major E&P acquisitions include at least some production assets that don’t align with the acquiring company’s long-term strategic plans. Also, it’s often true that big-dollar M&A increases the buyer’s debt level — and it’s typical in such cases that the company commits to quickly reducing its debt through the divestiture of non-core assets. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, there’s a lot of that going on now, and in many cases smaller, private-equity-backed producers are scooping up the acreage and production being sold. 

Another day, another mega-deal between top-tier oil and gas producers — or so it seems. Now, it’s ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil’s turn, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a more logical pairing among the ever-shrinking list of big E&Ps that hadn’t already found a partner during the ongoing frenzy to consolidate. In today’s RBN blog, we examine ConocoPhillips’s newly announced, $22.5 billion agreement to acquire Marathon Oil with a look at their similar histories, their complementary assets, and what will now be their joint effort to boost shareholder returns. 

The renewed focus on energy security — and the acknowledgment that the world will continue to rely on hydrocarbons for decades to come — may be breathing new life into an often-overlooked U.S. production area: Alaska’s North Slope. The state’s crude oil output is down to its lowest level since before the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) came online in 1977. But now federal regulators are moving toward final approval for ConocoPhillips’s $8 billion Willow project in the National Petroleum Reserve, and Australia’s Santos Ltd. and Spain’s Repsol have taken a final investment decision (FID) on the $2.6 billion first phase of their Pikka project between Willow and Prudhoe Bay. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss recent hydrocarbon-related developments in America’s Last Frontier.

Even with a double-digit percentage decline in crude oil prices since their initial capital spending budgets for 2017 were set, the 13 diversified U.S. exploration and production companies (E&Ps) we’ve been tracking are trimming their spending plans for the year by only $300 million, largely keeping in place $19 billion in drilling and completion investment. The Diversified Peer Group’s apparent confidence flies in the face of eroding investor sentiment as the median enterprise value per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) of reserves has declined 23% since year-end 2016 to $13.72/boe. Today, we review the changes in the outlook for the Diversified Peer Group’s upstream capital spending plans and update their expectations for 2017 oil and natural gas production.

There’s been at least some progress the last two years on Alaska’s ambitious plan to pipe huge volumes of North Slope-sourced natural gas to the state’s southern coast, supercool it into liquid form, and ship the resulting LNG to Asia. Over that same period, however, the international LNG market has been rattled by weak demand, rock-bottom prices and an impending supply glut. Alaska is itching to become a major LNG supplier by the mid-2020s, but is anyone willing to buy what it’s selling? Today, we provide an update on Alaska’s LNG plan, including a newly approved state buy-out of TransCanada’s interest in key elements of it.

Last week Eagle Ford producer BHP Billiton – apparently tired of waiting for a ruling from the Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) – decided to export a cargo of processed condensate that they have “self-classified” as refined product – meaning it is not subject to U.S. export restrictions on lease condensate and crude oil. That move followed BIS approval for Enterprise and Pioneer to make similar exports in July 2014 and could set off a posse of similar condensate exports by Eagle Ford producers.  Today we review new market options for condensate producers.

During the last week of September, reports surfaced that Alaskan oil producer ConocoPhillips (COP) has recently exported an 800 MBbl cargo of Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude to South Korea. This is the first such export since 2006 and marks a new development in the evolving debate over US crude oil exports that are heavily restricted by regulations that date back to the 1970’s. Today we look at the fundamentals behind COP’s export shipment.

Alaska officials, concerned the state’s once-dominant role in U.S. energy production will continue slipping, are taking a fresh look at helping to jump-start a combined natural gas treatment plant, gas pipeline and LNG export project that would free vast volumes of natural gas now stranded at the state’s North Slope. A new study commissioned by the state found that it could make sense for Alaska to take a 20% or higher equity stake in the project, but that there are significant risks the state would need to mitigate. Today we look at whether the 49th state can make a long-stalled plan by producers to move North Slope gas to market a reality by the mid-2020s.