The Permian has up to 11 Bcf/d of new natural-gas takeaway capacity scheduled to enter service through the end of 2029, with still more coming into the early 2030s. The central question is whether natural gas growth from Permian oil development will fill that capacity and, if so, how quickly.
The Permian Basin has likely seen the last of negative natural gas prices for years to come, now that new pipeline capacity is in place. But how can we be sure? Today, we’ll highlight the importance of gas-flow analysis and pipeline modeling and preview our upcoming Natural Gas Master Class.
Summit Midstream is moving full speed ahead with its 900-MMcf/d expansion of the Double E Pipeline after it secured about 550 MMCf/d of long-term commitments to move natural gas from the Permian Basin’s Delaware Basin toward the Waha Hub.
For the first time in years, the Permian Basin’s chronic natural gas takeaway constraint is beginning to ease — and in a big way. Today, we discuss the major Permian gas pipeline projects scheduled to come online in 2026-27, how much new capacity they will provide, and consider what it all means.
Natural gas prices in the Permian spent the first half of the year in the red. Then, in mid-June, Kinder Morgan flipped a switch and now Waha prices are back above zero. The “switch” was a compression expansion on Gulf Coast Express, which added a desperately needed 570 MMcf/d of takeaway capacity.
Kinetik shut in about 170 MMcf/d of Permian natural gas production due to low Waha prices during Q1 2026, which was more than offset by “spread-based marketing gains” which helped it post a record quarterly EBITDA of $251 million, the company said during its earnings call this week.
A combination of new natural gas takeaway capacity out of the Permian, rising feedgas demand from LNG export terminals and stronger gas prices at the Waha Hub will support a steady increase in associated gas production. But an important question looms: Will there be enough gas processing capacity?
This year will be a tale of two halves for the Permian. Natural gas production and pricing figure to remain fairly stable until the back half of this year, when more than 5 Bcf/d of new pipeline capacity comes online, giving the basin room to grow for the first time in a long time.
What happens when almost everybody is on the same side of a trade and the fundamentals flip? Yup, max pain. Everyone races for the exits at the same time, sending the market into speculative liquidation mode and causing cascading losses. It can get frantic and ugly — tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake, and no one’s sure how bad things might get. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, frantic and ugly is precisely what happened over the last few days at the Waha natural gas trading hub in West Texas.
After a record run of negative pricing last spring and summer, the Permian Basin collectively cheered as WhiteWater’s Matterhorn Express pipeline began flowing last October, bringing much-needed takeaway capacity to the area. Cash prices at the Waha Hub rebounded and the basin had a relatively uneventful winter, but prices began dropping in early March and have once again traded below zero for most of the past few weeks. This has taken the market somewhat by surprise, as many expected the impact of Matterhorn’s startup to last more than a few months. Prices jumped back above zero on Wednesday and above $1/MMBtu on Thursday, but with major pipeline maintenance coming next week, any relief is likely to be short lived. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what’s driving the recent run of negative pricing in the Permian Basin and what it means until additional infrastructure comes online next year.
