Building and expanding refineries has always been a challenging task, and it’s only gotten tougher and pricier lately. Getting a new project off the ground requires effectively managing many complex moving parts, including securing capital, procuring skilled engineers and craftsmen, and operating within a supportive government and economic climate. But even with all those pieces in place, projects can unravel fast if global politics shift, the economy sours, or unpredictable developments, such as wars, pandemics, or any number of other such “black swan” events, hit. In today’s RBN blog, we share our thoughts on refinery projects across the globe.
In Part 1 of this series, we outlined the massive challenges and cost/schedule overruns facing the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and the Dos Bocas (Olmeca) refinery in Mexico. But the difficulties in adding refining capacity are far from isolated to those two sites, as projects across the globe have faced similar headaches, even in the U.S. (although not nearly to the same degree). A recent example is the $2 billion, 250-Mb/d expansion at ExxonMobil’s Beaumont, TX, refinery, which, while overall very successful, especially regarding the project execution factors within their control, had a more than yearlong delay due to the impact of COVID shutdowns and the resulting drop in refined products demand before starting up in 2023.
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School of Energy: Foundations is a two day, in person conference designed to help energy professionals better understand the forces shaping crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, refined products, and petrochemicals.
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Too often, we at RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice notice that many potential roadblocks, such as economic downturns and regulatory developments, aren’t factored into a project’s chances for success. As a result, startup timelines, operating performance and other variables for new projects are often overly optimistic. We share a more grounded, realistic view of the elements that contribute to successful projects when crafting our refinery project forecasts, including the consideration of differences in regional markets, which will influence future refinery capacity developments. Figure 1 below shows RFA’s overall view of the global refinery market, with a high-level, qualitative assessment of those regional factors.
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About the song
“Frustrated” was written by Doug Fieger and Burton Averre and appears as the sixth song on side two of The Knack's debut album, Get The Knack. The song was inspired by Fieger’s girlfriend, Sharona Alperin (who was also the inspiration for the #1 hit single, “My Sharona”). It’s a classic tale of teenage angst served up in a frothy, sweet power pop format. It was released as the B-side to The Knack's second single, “Good Girls Don’t,” in August 1979. It went to #11 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles chart. Personnel on the record were: Doug Fieger (lead, backing vocals, rhythm guitar), Berton Averre (lead guitar, backing vocals), Prescott Niles (bass) and Bruce Gary (drums).
Get The Knack was recorded in April 1979 at The Record Plant in New York City, with Mike Chapman producing. At the time, it was one of the most successful debut albums in history, selling over a million copies in two months. It stayed #1 on the Billboard Albums chart for five weeks. Recorded in two weeks for $18,000, it garnered people's attention in an industry rife with delays, problems, and continually being over-budget. Released in June 1979, it went to #1 on the Billboard 200 Albums chart and has been certified 2x Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America. Two singles were released from the LP.
The Knack was an American power pop band formed in Los Angeles in 1978 by Doug Fieger, Burton Averre, Prescott Niles, and Bruce Gary. Fieger was previously in the Detroit rock band Sky, which released two albums on RCA in 1970 and 1971. He was also a member of the short-lived Los Angeles power pop band, The Sunset Bombers, who released one album on Ariola Records in 1978. Future Rubber City Rebels drummer, Brendon Matheson, was a member of The Sunset Bombers and was the guy responsible for turning Fieger on to The Sex Pistols' music. Drummer Bruce Gary had played with several bands and solo artists such as Albert Collins, Dr. John. Jack Bruce, Mick Taylor, Randy California, and Carla Bley, before joining The Knack. Shortly after relocating to Los Angeles, Fieger began writing songs with Averre. The Knack played their first show in June 1978 and signed with Capitol Records in January 1979. Their timeline to success was really remarkable. Within two years, they were signed to a major label, made their first album in two weeks, and sold over two million records. A backlash spurred by the band's quick meteoric rise to success and poor managerial decisions turned a lot of people off to the group. The declining sales of their next two albums led to the band disbanding for the first time in 1982. Reuniting for brief periods with more recordings released led to little success. They released seven studio albums, three live albums, five compilation albums, and 16 singles. Bruce Gary died in Tarzana, California, in August 2006 at 55. Doug Fieger died in Los Angeles in February 2010 at 57.
"About the Song" -- written by Mickey McMahan , RBN Director of Musicology
