I Can’t Go For That (No Can Do) – Angst Over EU’s Methane Regs Heats Up as Phase-In Period Looms

For months, the Trump administration and energy industry groups have been pressing the European Union (EU) to either scrap or significantly ease its regulations on methane emissions. They assert the methane monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) requirements, set to ratchet up in 2027, 2028 and 2030, would be impossible for U.S. natural gas producers to meet and result in a sharp decline in — or even an end to — U.S. LNG flows to the EU. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the controversy and how we think it’s likely to be resolved.

As we said in The Times They Are a-Changin’, the 27-member EU in May 2024 approved the European Union Methane Regulation (EUMR), legislation that, among other things, established methane emission reporting requirements for EU energy producers and LNG importers and a timeline for setting a methane intensity (MI) target for imported LNG. The EUMR is part of the EU’s long-term effort to achieve carbon neutrality and its “Fit for 55” program, an effort to reduce the EU’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55% by 2030. Starting in January 2027, the methane regulation will require the companies importing LNG into Europe to prove that the MRV practices of gas producers in the LNG-exporting countries they deal with are at least as stringent as those followed by energy producers within the EU. In August 2028, LNG importers will need to start providing the MI of their gas and starting in August 2030 they will have to prove that their gas’s MI does not exceed a yet-to-be-established MI cap.

Methane is the second-most-impactful GHG — only carbon dioxide (CO2) has a greater total heat-trapping effect on the atmosphere — and U.S. gas producers have been working for many years to reduce methane emissions from their operations by phasing out flaring, implementing leak detection and repair (LDAR) programs and replacing gas-powered pumps with electric ones. (See our A Whole New World blog and five-part Time Has Come Today series for more on “certified,” “differentiated” or “responsibly sourced” gas.) These efforts to minimize emissions have been motivated both by economics and the pursuit of operational excellence — after all, natural gas is typically more than 90% methane; why waste it? — and by the expectation that future U.S. and international regulations, including those now being implemented by the EU, will mandate lower and lower MIs for their gas.

Our understanding is that at least 25%, and possibly more than one-third, of total U.S. natural gas production is already being assessed based on methane emissions, mostly by the not-for-profit MiQ but also by other independent certification entities. Expand Energy, the largest U.S. gas producer, noted in its Q3 2025 earnings presentation that 100% of its gas production is now independently certified (mostly by MiQ), and that its companywide MI is only 0.2% — well below the 1% to 2% MI that had been more typical among gas producers in the late 2010s. Similarly, EQT Corp., the #2 gas producer in the U.S., said in June that its Marcellus/Utica-focused production (also independently certified by MiQ) has achieved an MI of only 0.007%, “significantly surpassing its 2025 target of 0.2%.”

This might suggest that U.S. gas producers and LNG exporters would have no problem complying with whatever MI-related rules the EU puts in place, and that the U.S. could continue to provide EU members and other countries in Europe with the substantial volumes of LNG they need to keep the lights on. As shown in Figure 1 below, the U.S.’s share of total LNG imports to Europe (top row) has doubled over the past four years, from 28% in the first half of 2021 to 57% in the first half of 2025. That’s more than 4X the 13% share provided by Russia (which the EU is phasing out as a gas supplier by the end of 2027), 7X Qatar’s 8% share, and 8X Algeria’s 7% share in the first half of this year.