The U.S. Gulf Coast 3-2-1 crack spread is near $18.33/bbl. Over the most recent period, the diesel crack increased from approximately $25.45/bbl on December 29 to $27.68/bbl on January 5, while gasoline cracks declined almost continuously since the start of December, reaching $13.66/bbl on January 5. Recent movements in the USGC 3-2-1 crack spread coincide with higher diesel cracks and lower gasoline cracks over the period. As of January 5, there was a $14/bbl difference between diesel and gasoline cracks on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
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USGC 3-2-1 Crack Spread Cools but Remains Strong
The USGC 3-2-1 crack spread has cooled from its spring highs, but refining margins remain exceptionally strong. June's average crack spread is running more than 100% above year-ago levels, supported by elevated gasoline and diesel cracks.
Double-Edged Sword – Refinery ‘Capacity Creep,’ Falling Inventories May Limit U.S. Crude Export Surge
U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025, up nearly 1.6 MMb/d from 2023, but crude export volumes remained remarkably stable — at or very near 4.1 MMb/d — until a recent Iran-related surge. A key reason: “capacity creep” expansion projects at several Gulf Coast refineries.
Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad – U.S. and European Refineries Thriving So Far, But Asian Ones Suffer
It’s been eight weeks since the steady flow of crude oil and refined product tankers out of the Persian Gulf ended, and the impacts on refineries and product suppliers in key parts of the world are becoming clearer. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the state of refining in the U.S., Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.