The U.S. Gulf Coast 3-2-1 crack spread is near $18.33/bbl. Over the most recent period, the diesel crack increased from approximately $25.45/bbl on December 29 to $27.68/bbl on January 5, while gasoline cracks declined almost continuously since the start of December, reaching $13.66/bbl on January 5. Recent movements in the USGC 3-2-1 crack spread coincide with higher diesel cracks and lower gasoline cracks over the period. As of January 5, there was a $14/bbl difference between diesel and gasoline cracks on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
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USGC Crack Spread Climbs as Diesel Margins Surge
USGC refining margins strengthened again in August as surging diesel cracks pushed the 3-2-1 crack spread to an average of $65/bbl, more than two-and-a-half times its year-ago level.
USGC 3-2-1 Crack Spread Cools but Remains Strong
The USGC 3-2-1 crack spread has cooled from its spring highs, but refining margins remain exceptionally strong. June's average crack spread is running more than 100% above year-ago levels, supported by elevated gasoline and diesel cracks.
Double-Edged Sword – Refinery ‘Capacity Creep,’ Falling Inventories May Limit U.S. Crude Export Surge
U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025, up nearly 1.6 MMb/d from 2023, but crude export volumes remained remarkably stable — at or very near 4.1 MMb/d — until a recent Iran-related surge. A key reason: “capacity creep” expansion projects at several Gulf Coast refineries.