U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025, up nearly 1.6 MMb/d from 2023, but crude export volumes remained remarkably stable — at or very near 4.1 MMb/d — until a recent Iran-related surge. A key reason: “capacity creep” expansion projects at several Gulf Coast refineries.
Regularly scheduled refinery turnarounds are one the most important (and expensive) activities of any refiner. Today, we look at what happens during a typical turnaround, the ways refiners seek to manage their risk, and the biggest potential payoffs that come with a well-executed project.
More than a decade ago, several U.S. refiners brought new hydrocracking capacity online, wagering that rising demand for middle distillates made such major investments necessary. They were good bets. Demand for jet fuel is expected to continue to grow, and while diesel demand is seen as relatively flat in the U.S. over the next few years, it will continue to climb globally through 2045, according to RBN’s recently released Future of Fuels report. In contrast, the report also sees domestic gasoline demand declines accelerating post-2026 and peaking globally by about 2030, as more consumers turn to electric vehicles (EVs). These contrasting trajectories for middle distillates vs. gasoline will put a growing premium on distillate-centric hydrocracking capacity. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine trends incentivizing hydrocracking capacity and how these units will allow U.S. refiners to maintain their competitiveness in a rapidly changing product market.
In the first eight months of last year, the Corpus Christi area ranked third among its Gulf Coast brethren in crude oil export volumes — Houston was consistently #1 then, and Beaumont was the regular runner-up. Since September 2019, though, Corpus has been out front, often by a wide margin, and there’s good reason to believe it will stay ahead of the pack, at least for a while. What’s driving the South Texas port’s export-volume growth? First, there are three big new pipelines now moving crude from the Permian to Corpus: Cactus II, EPIC Crude and Gray Oak. Second, Corpus Christi and nearby Ingleside, TX, have a lot of existing storage and marine-dock capacity, and more is being developed. Today, we continue our review of crude export facilities with a look at three terminals along Corpus’s Inner Harbor.
Despite last month’s much-publicized start-up of two new crude oil pipelines from the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast — Plains All American’s Cactus II and EPIC Crude Holding’s EPIC Pipeline — tangible evidence of how much crude is actually moving on those pipelines has been hard to come by. That’s because crude oil pipelines don’t post daily flow data, like some natural gas pipelines do, and shipper volumes are a closely held secret that often only becomes available long after the fact. However, Cactus II and EPIC both deliver into the Corpus Christi, TX, market area, where a number of export facilities have been waiting to move Permian barrels out into the global market. We’ve been keeping a close eye on Corpus-area docks and have noticed a significant increase in export volumes over the last few days — a clear indication that Permian crude on Cactus II and EPIC has broken through to the global market. Today, we detail a recent rise in Corpus Christi oil export volumes driven by new supply from the Permian Basin.
New pipelines to increase crude oil takeaway capacity from major producing areas like the Permian and the Bakken to oil storage and distribution hubs like Houston, TX and Cushing, OK seem to garner most of the media’s attention. Just outside the spotlight’s glare, though –– and even during the ongoing slump in oil prices –– midstream companies are building several “demand-pull” pipelines to move crude to refineries more efficiently, and to give refineries easier, cheaper access to new, desirable supplies. Today, we begin a look at these new pipeline connections, their rationales, and their effects on other pipelines, barge deliveries and crude-by-rail.
We don’t expect to see a flurry of U.S. crude shipments overseas following the expected lifting of the decades old U.S. ban on exports by Congress this week. That’s because the price spread between U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and international equivalent Brent is currently trading at less than $2/Bbl – providing no economic incentive to cover the freight cost of shipping U.S. crude abroad. However, longer term the end of the export ban expands the market options for U.S. crude producers. In that context, well-developed pipeline connections between South Texas Eagle Ford oil and condensate production and the Port of Corpus Christi bode well for future export opportunities.
Corpus Christi has emerged as an important crude refining and distribution market hub for Eagle Ford and Permian Basin crude and lease condensate. Corpus has a lot going for it: it’s close to--and well-connected by pipeline with--the Eagle Ford, it has new and potentially growing connections with Permian; and Corpus and its environs boast considerable crude/condensate storage, refining and processing capacity, as well as one of the nation’s busiest ports. Today we continue our review of Eagle Ford crude/condensate pipelines feeding Corpus including Kinder Morgan, NuStar, Magellan and Harvest pipelines.
After a year’s delay due to permit issues, Enbridge now expects the expanded and reversed 300 Mb/d Line 9B pipeline to Montreal will come online next month (November 2015). The pipeline is an important cog in Enbridge’s Eastern Access and Light Oil Market Access expansion projects and will supply mostly light crude to two refineries in Quebec. As we explain today, the payload will travel a winding route to get to Montreal.
The deluge of light (and super light) sweet crude from U.S. tight-oil plays like the Permian Basin, Bakken and Eagle Ford has had many effects, including a push by refiners to rework facilities designed for heavy-crude processing to handle an excess of lighter oils. Many of these projects are underway and expected online in the next two years. Today, we consider refinery infrastructure investments that might not pan out in a low crude price world.
