inventories

Today, we look at why high crack spreads don’t necessarily increase a refinery’s output, how market disruptions elsewhere can drain U.S. inventories, and the indicators that will help tell us whether the diesel squeeze is easing (or worsening).

The U.S. propane market typically follows predictable trends. With much of domestic demand occurring in the colder months, storage builds in the summer and is withdrawn in the winter. But since mid-April, storage levels have increased by only 1.2 MMbbl. Today, we explore what is going on and why.

Refined product supply in Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 1, which comprises Atlantic Coast states from New England to Florida, has been in trouble all year. Maintenance issues beset refineries during the first quarter, and then in June, the region's largest refinery, a 355-Mb/d plant owned by Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES), was shuttered after a fire. The loss of the PES output would've been manageable if imports had taken up the slack. But although gasoline imports increased, distillate shipments have actually been lower than normal since June. As a result, the PADD 1 distillate market has been drawing an average 163 Mb/d from inventory since mid-August, according to weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports, leaving stocks in the region at a 10-year low. That storage deficit versus previous years will increase when the weather turns colder and heating oil demand kicks into high gear. With stocks at historical lows and market prices not attracting new supplies, the shortage may well foreshadow price spikes this winter. A potential strike by unionized workers at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in northern New Jersey could make matters worse. Today, we look at what's behind the PADD 1 distillate shortfall.

During the summer of 2018, crude oil inventories at the trading hub in Cushing, OK, dropped to extreme lows. With estimated tank bottoms around 14.6 MMbbl, Cushing stockpiles hit 21.8 MMbbl for the week of August 3. Traders’ alarm bells were ringing, and upstream and downstream observers were wondering if low storage levels were going to cause significant operational issues. But just when it seemed tanks were nearing catastrophic lows, inventories reversed course and started to climb. Since August, crude stocks have increased by 13.6 MMbbl, or nearly 60%, and there is now talk of potentially too much crude en route to Cushing, maxing out capacity there. There are many contributing factors to this most recent inventory swing, with increased domestic production and the tail end of refinery turnaround season being two of the bigger fundamental drivers. But the main catalyst has been the shift from a backwardated forward curve to a contango forward curve in the WTI futures market. Today, we continue our Cushing series with a snapshot of recent contango markets and the impact those prices have had on stockpiles at the central Oklahoma hub.

Contributor Kyle Cooper breaks down the most significant developments in last week’s natural gas market.

It’s been a couple of weeks since we’ve looked at natural gas balances.  Since today is EIA Natgas Storage day it seems appropriate to check in on the progress natural gas producers are making to cut back supplies.  For readers not familiar with the quirks and foibles of the natural gas market, Thursdays are big days for gas traders.  On Thursday mornings at exactly 10:30AM central time the EIA posts weekly natural gas storage inventories.  Like other petroleum inventory numbers, these are not forecasts. They are EIA’s best guess at inventories at the end of last week.   If you are interested, here’s the URL: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html.

Last week EIA published a note titled Cushing Crude Oil Inventories Rising In 2012, which focuses on the 12 MMbl increase in storage levels from mid-January until end-March.  It was a 43% surge, the largest over an 11 week period since 2009.