EVs

Expectations for electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the U.S. took a sharp detour into uncharted territory earlier this month when President Trump signed the landmark budget reconciliation bill into law. Known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the law dramatically scales back EV subsidies, eliminates penalties for automakers that don’t meet fuel-efficiency standards, and significantly restricts state-level zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) programs. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why the law is likely to slow the pace of EV adoption and impact forecasts for vehicle sales and gasoline demand — a key topic in the just-published Future of Fuels report from our Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice.

U.S. energy policy was at the heart of the 2024 presidential campaign in more ways than one. Many voters cited economic concerns in their decision to return President Trump to the White House, with energy costs top of mind, but U.S. energy policy impacts everything from domestic manufacturing and decarbonization efforts to resource development and international trade. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the executive orders issued by Trump on the first day of his second term and how they fit into his plan for the U.S. to exert “energy dominance.” 

Many of this year’s most popular RBN blogs gravitated toward familiar energy market themes — rising exports, shifts in oil production, weak natural gas prices, surprising NGL pricing dynamics and the like. However, we also noted a significant uptick in interest in topics beyond the traditional energy realm, including hydrogen, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), electric vehicles (EVs) and even the role of artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers. It’s not that RBNers have shifted their focus away from oil, gas and NGL markets. Rather, it reflects a growing recognition that the renewable and alternative energy landscape — fueled by regulations, subsidies and tax incentives — is reshaping the energy world. For anyone in the energy business, staying one step ahead (or maybe three steps) means understanding how these trends intersect with traditional energy markets. In 2024, our readers made it clear: The interplay between renewable and conventional energy commodities is becoming increasingly important. 

There’s been a lot of speculation about whether the pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption has slowed, with JD Power now expecting EVs to make up 9% of U.S. new-car sales in 2024, down from its earlier estimate of 12.4% but still up from 7% in 2023. The group remains bullish on EVs in the long term, expecting market share to reach 36% by 2030 and 58% by 2035. The forecast from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) group forecast has been — and continues to be — more conservative than most but still anticipates EVs will reach 50% of U.S. new-car sales by the early 2040s. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what drives these forecasts and the anticipated impacts on gasoline demand. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and others have lowered growth targets for global oil consumption in the short term, while traders began a sell-off in crude benchmarks before the recent recovery in oil prices. Their main concern? China, which has accounted for a large part of global demand growth, has recently seen a sharp drop in oil demand due in part to an economic slowdown as well as a sharp increase in electric vehicle (EV) adoption. In today’s RBN blog, we will examine what’s happening in China, what it means for global oil demand, and where additional demand growth might come from. 

There’s been a lot of speculation about whether the pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption has slowed, with JD Power now expecting EVs to make up 9% of U.S. new-car sales in 2024, down from its earlier estimate of 12.4% but still up from 7% in 2023. The group remains bullish on EVs in the long term, expecting market share to reach 36% by 2030 and 58% by 2035. The forecast from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) group forecast has been — and continues to be — more conservative than most but still anticipates EVs will reach 50% of U.S. new-car sales by the early 2040s. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what drives these forecasts and the anticipated impacts on gasoline demand. 

The Biden administration recently announced a very ambitious — to say the least — rule on tailpipe emissions. But while the rule’s legal and political standing might be a bit uncertain — it’s seen by many as a de facto ban on conventionally fueled cars and trucks and is likely to face several court challenges — doubts also remain about whether it matches up with the realities of today’s energy world. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the new rule, what it would mean for U.S. consumers and automakers, and how it conflicts with the views of RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice on the future of global oil and refined products demand and the rate of electric vehicle (EV) adoption. 

If the U.S. is to significantly grow its production of electric vehicles (EVs), it’s going to need a robust domestic supply chain that includes critical metals and minerals. The Biden administration has previously provided billions in funding made available through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA, also known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law) to help establish new clean-energy industries, an approach it is repeating with EV battery manufacturing and its goal of having EVs account for half of all new-car sales by 2030. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the $3.5 billion set aside to fund investments in the EV battery supply chain and increase domestic manufacturing. 

The world consumes about 100 MMb/d of liquid fuels, which are critically important to every segment of the global economy and to nearly every aspect of our daily lives. The size and scope of this market means it’s impacted by all kinds of short-term forces — economic ups and downs, geopolitics, domestic developments and major weather events, just to name a few — some of which are difficult, if not impossible, to foresee. But while these events can sometimes come out of nowhere, there are some long-term forces on the horizon that will shape markets in the decades to come, even if the magnitude of these changes might be up for debate. One is a move to prioritize alternative fuel sources rather than crude oil, but a meaningful shift won’t happen as quickly as many forecasts would indicate — and that has big implications for liquid fuel demand and the outlook for U.S. refiners. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss these issues and other highlights from the recent webcast by RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice on their newly released update to the Future of Fuels report.

Discussions about electric vehicles (EVs) often focus on the additional demands they will put on the power grid in future years, with concerns about the grid’s reliability and ability to meet peak demand often taking center stage. There’s no doubt that a widespread transition to EVs would pose real challenges, but utilities in California and elsewhere are also starting to think creatively about how to transform those challenges into an opportunity — although there are significant hurdles to clear along the way, including the needed buy-in from EV owners. In today’s RBN blog, we explain California’s so-called duck curve, show how certain EV solutions aim to address some of the power grid’s current problems, and look at some ways to get EV drivers to become active (and willing) participants in a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) initiative, which increasingly looks like an essential element in any long-term plan.