China’s appetite for crude oil has been lower than expected this year, largely due to a slowing economy and the increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). And the U.S.’s #1 economic and geopolitical rival is in the midst of another transition that could further weaken crude oil demand: Heavy-duty trucking in China is increasingly being powered by LNG instead of diesel. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the trend toward LNG-fueled trucking in China and what it could mean for LNG exporters in the U.S.
Posts from Sheela Tobben
PetroChina’s recent decision to offload its 20-year commitment to use the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion (TMX) might seem like a bit of a head-scratcher on the surface, especially since Asian buyers have been expected to take advantage of the increased access to Western Canadian crude oil that TMX provides. But when you factor in the known challenges of utilizing the new pipeline and the reduced demand for crude oil in China, PetroChina’s decision to sell its commitment to Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) starts to make sense. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the challenges buyers face in using the TMX system despite its obvious perks.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories have been climbing over the past year as the Department of Energy (DOE) advances plans to replenish it following the record 180-MMbbl drawdown after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But DOE officials have said its refilling efforts are complicated by upgrades at three of the four SPR storage sites. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the scope of these “life-extension” projects, the completion timetable, and how it might drag out restocking efforts.
The Atlantic hurricane season often evokes worries about the oil and refined products industry, even far up the East Coast, thanks to the widespread impact of Superstorm Sandy a dozen years ago. But electricity production could also be at risk should a major storm once again make its way up the Eastern Seaboard thanks to the large-scale wind farms under development there. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine the threats, how they might impact Atlantic Coast wind power, and how offshore turbines are designed to withstand severe storms.
As the Atlantic hurricane season churns out storms that regularly threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast, it can be easy to forget that the East Coast — an important refining center and refined-products market — is not immune from their impact. A dozen years ago this month, Superstorm Sandy roared ashore in New Jersey, wreaking havoc with storm surges and fierce winds that stretched for 1,000 miles. While the East Coast lacks the Gulf Coast’s concentration of energy infrastructure, it is home to the critical New York Harbor (NYH) market. In today’s RBN blog, we will examine how storms have affected the refining sector on the East Coast.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and others have lowered growth targets for global oil consumption in the short term, while traders began a sell-off in crude benchmarks before the recent recovery in oil prices. Their main concern? China, which has accounted for a large part of global demand growth, has recently seen a sharp drop in oil demand due in part to an economic slowdown as well as a sharp increase in electric vehicle (EV) adoption. In today’s RBN blog, we will examine what’s happening in China, what it means for global oil demand, and where additional demand growth might come from.
The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) may account for less than one-fifth of U.S. oil production but it’s a region that’s more than holding its own. Drillers plan to expand production, using advanced technologies to tap untouched reserves in deeper waters. Still, Gulf Coast output has always been at risk from severe storms, just like the onshore outlets and infrastructure on which producers depend. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on the developments in the Gulf.
Storms that form in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) during hurricane season don’t just dissipate once they make landfall and can inflict havoc on onshore assets. Storm damage and flooding can delay plant restarts, but so can power outages, as we saw when Hurricane Beryl hit the Texas/Louisiana region in July. And while there were no major refining or production assets in the path of Hurricane Helene, which slammed into the Florida Panhandle on September 26, widespread damage illustrated the potential risk to onshore infrastructure. In today’s RBN blog, we will examine how hurricanes have disrupted onshore assets and explain why power restoration is often the Achilles’ heel in plans to resume normal operations.
Crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is poised for a growth spurt through 2030 even as producers brace for a host of challenges, not least from forecasts that global oil demand will subside in the long term. But while the GOM’s supply accounts for a relatively small portion of total U.S. production, exploration and production companies (E&Ps) haven’t lost interest, in part because the Gulf offers key crude grades in high demand. In today’s RBN blog, we examine what is stoking the renewed interest in developing the GOM.
Every year, the biggest wild card regarding Gulf of Mexico (GOM) crude oil production is the severity of the Atlantic hurricane season. A season generally free of major storms in offshore production areas will likely have only a minimal impact, but a summer and early fall with even just one or two powerful hurricanes along certain paths can cause output to plummet, sometimes for extended periods. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at GOM production gains over the years, the degree to which hurricanes and other issues have reduced output in the past, and the new production expected to come online later this decade.
Guyana’s crude oil production is surging, a trend that is expected to continue through the rest of the decade, and with no domestic refining industry its exports are booming. Shipments of Guyana’s medium-density, sweet-ish crude to the U.S. have ramped up and are increasingly making their way to the West Coast, which relies on imports given its lack of easy access to domestic shale crudes and limited regional output. In today's RBN blog, the second in a series, we‘ll examine where Guyana’s barrels are ending up and how they stack up against competing grades.
Guyana’s rise as a crude oil producer in recent years can only be described as meteoric. If forecasts from some of the most respected international agencies pan out, the South American country’s output may soon rival some of the world’s biggest offshore producers. But the developments there are not without some controversy: they’re the centerpiece of a dispute over the proposed Chevron-Hess merger, while neighboring Venezuela claims that much of Guyana’s oil reserves are actually within Venezuelan territory. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a deep dive into Guyana’s production, examining its grades, quality and export flows as it transforms into a major global supplier.
The Biden administration has been on a mission for more than a year to restock the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which was tapped at unprecedented levels in an effort to keep crude oil and refined product prices under control after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 disrupted energy flows globally. But if returning all of the released 180 MMbbl and replenishing the SPR to pre-war levels was the plan, they’ve got a long way to go. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the steps the administration has taken to replenish the reserve and the headwinds it faces.
For a few years now, crude oil shippers out of the Permian have enjoyed a surplus in pipeline takeaway capacity thanks to a slew of new pipes that came online just as COVID crushed demand, prices and production. But Permian production has recovered, and the takeaway situation is changing for some routes. For example, the pipelines from West Texas to Corpus Christi are running close to full, and if a new offshore export terminal gets built, Permian-to-Gulf-Coast takeaway dynamics would get far more complicated — and fast. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report, which examines Permian crude flows to existing export terminals and the potential impacts of a new deepwater facility.
The Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) crude market has evolved in recent years, due largely to the reversal of the Capline pipeline as well as limited production growth from the offshore fields that contribute to the LLS market. Yet the LLS premium against other U.S. grades remains strong, a sign that refiners aren’t ready to give up on it just yet, given its attractive yields of high-value transportation fuels like gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. In today’s RBN blog, we will revisit LLS and examine its production and demand outlook.