The Long Road – U.S. Oil Deals Have Venezuela Poised for Long-Term Growth, But It’s Far from Certain

Venezuela’s oil industry spent more than a decade moving in the wrong direction, with crude production, exports and refinery operations falling far below their former levels. But 2026 has brought a notable change. Production has begun to recover, exports have risen and even refinery throughput has moved slightly higher. A sweeping new agreement with the U.S. could accelerate investment and development across the country’s upstream oil sector, although that outcome is far from certain. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the recent improvements in Venezuelan crude oil production and exports in light of its deal with the U.S., and although that deal does not involve refining, we will also address the prospects there.

Under the first-of-its-kind agreement announced in late August, Venezuela agreed to grant 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields with proven reserves of approximately 65 billion barrels to North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), the country’s second-largest private oil producer. NABEP, which said it expects to spend nearly $100 billion on new infrastructure in Venezuela, granted the U.S. a 35% equity stake in its corporate parent and also gave the U.S. the right to purchase, at production cost, 20% of the offtake from all current and future fields NABEP will operate, according to a White House fact sheet published August 31. The U.S. also has the right of first refusal to purchase the remaining 80% of its production, per the fact sheet. The deal greatly expands U.S. control of Venezuela’s energy sector.

We should note at the top that there are a seemingly endless number of questions about the practical and legal concerns around the highly unusual deal. Can the U.S. government legally take a majority stake in a foreign joint venture? How politically durable will the agreement be in the U.S. and Venezuela? Will it encourage other oil and gas companies to invest in Venezuela? Those, and others, are thorny questions and we’re not going to attempt to answer them here. Our focus today is what the deal, and a separate announcement by Chevron (more on that below), could mean for Venezuela’s oil sector going forward given the changes already seen this year.

Venezuela’s oil industry has been in long-term decline, but its massive reserves alone provide hope for a lasting turnaround. Venezuela reported in 2023 that it has 303 billion barrels of proved reserves (far-left bar in Figure 1 below) — roughly equal to 17% of the global total and the highest of any country. The announced deal with the NABEP would give the U.S. access to 65 billion barrels (green bar segment at far left; about 21% of the total) but would not include the other 248 billion barrels (orange bar segment). The U.S. has about 74 billion barrels of proved reserves (red bar segment), ranking #9 globally.