It’s been a banner year for U.S. refiners, especially those able to consistently run at high rates and maximize their production of diesel. The U.S. Gulf Coast diesel crack spread surpassed $100/bbl for the first time in August and has remained elevated ever since, driven by a series of disruptions to global refining capacity and refined-product flows significant enough to raise the prospect of a ban on U.S. diesel exports as a way to keep prices in check. In today’s RBN blog, we look at where things stand and how a U.S. export ban could result in a number of unintended short- and long-term consequences.
The Future of Fuels bi-annual report by RBN's Refined Fuels Analytics provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S. and global refinery industries, focusing on crude oil and fuel market dynamics, supply and demand, alternative fuels, refinery capacities, and price forecasts to help stakeholders navigate the evolving energy landscape.
Geopolitical tensions and upset trade flows have been the central theme of this year’s energy markets. Middle Eastern refineries have been affected by damage inflicted during the Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while Russian refining and exports have been repeatedly set back by Ukrainian drone attacks. Those developments come at a time when global refining capacity is already tight due to a number of permanent shutdowns (many during the COVID years) and limited new capacity coming online (a subject addressed in detail in our recently released Future of Fuels report), leading to sharply higher prices for crude oil and refined products.
The diesel market is particularly exposed to those types of disruptions because global supply remains constrained and demand is comparatively (vs. gasoline) resilient, leaving little cushion when disruptions occur. The U.S. has historically been the biggest supplier of diesel to the global market, so it should be no surprise that exports have increased this year, with foreign buyers pulling harder on a system that is already near its limit. U.S. distillate exports (blue line in Figure 1 below) averaged about 1.4 MMb/d in H1 2026, up from 1.25 MMb/d in 2025 and about 7X the volumes from 20 years ago. Imports have also declined this year, leading to a record level of net exports (orange line).
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About the song
“Leap of Faith” was written by Bruce Springsteen and appears as the fifth song on his 10th studio album, Lucky Town. It is an upbeat rock song that uses religious imagery to talk about love, renewal and trust. Released as a single in October 1992, it went to #28 on the Billboard Mainstream Rock Singles chart. Personnel on the record were: Bruce Springsteen (lead vocals, guitar, bass, percussion), Roy Bittan (keyboards), Gary Mallaber (drums), and Patti Scialla, Soozie Tyrell, and Lisa Lowell (backing vocals).
Lucky Town was recorded between September 1991 and January 1992 at Thrill Hill in Colts Neck, NJ, and A&M Studios in Hollywood. Produced by Bruce Springsteen, Jon Landau, Chuck Poltkin and Roy Bittan, the album was released in March 1992. It went to #3 on the Billboard 200 Albums chart and has been certified Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America. It was released simultaneously with Springsteen’s Human Touch album. Four singles were released from Lucky Town.
Bruce Springsteen is an American singer, songwriter and musician. Known as “The Boss,” he started his musical career in 1965 as a teenager playing lead guitar for The Castiles, a popular rock band from Freehold, NJ. In 1969, he joined Steel Mill, a band that would include future E Street Band members Danny Federici and Steven Van Zandt. Springsteen was signed by John Hammond to a record deal with Columbia Records in 1972 and released his debut studio album, Greetings from Asbury Park, N.J., in January 1973. He has released 21 studio albums, 121 live albums, two soundtrack albums, 10 compilation albums, nine EPs, and 76 singles and has sold over 140 million records worldwide. Springsteen has won an Academy Award, two Golden Globe Awards, 20 Grammy Awards, and a Tony Award. He is a member of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and the Songwriters Hall of Fame and has received Kennedy Center Honors, the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the National Medal of Arts, and the Woody Guthrie Prize. Springsteen and the E Street Band continue to record and appear live. They recently finished the Land of Hope and Dreams American Tour in Philadelphia in May.
"About the Song" -- written by Mickey McMahan , RBN Director of Musicology
