Every year, the biggest wild card regarding Gulf of Mexico (GOM) crude oil production is the severity of the Atlantic hurricane season. A season generally free of major storms in offshore production areas will likely have only a minimal impact, but a summer and early fall with even just one or two powerful hurricanes along certain paths can cause output to plummet, sometimes for extended periods. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at GOM production gains over the years, the degree to which hurricanes and other issues have reduced output in the past, and the new production expected to come online later this decade.
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Let’s start with a look at how much crude oil is produced in the GOM. Output climbed from a little more than 700 Mb/d in the early 1980s to nearly 2 MMb/d in 2019, just before the pandemic hit. Most of that growth was from discoveries in the deeper waters of the Gulf (at least 500 feet) while production in shallower areas near the coast has receded, a trend that is expected to continue. Despite rising production, the region’s share of U.S. oil output has been declining since onshore shale production, led by the Permian Basin, took off. As of 2023, GOM oil output averaged 1.87 MMb/d and accounted for 14% of domestic production, down from 27% two decades ago.
It won’t surprise most folks that hurricanes have the potential to cause major disruptions to GOM production — and, of course, to refining and other operations ashore. While the hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, major storms can form outside that window, as was the case in 2020 when Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha spawned in May. (More on the busy 2020 hurricane season in a bit.) Each season’s impact on the oil and gas industry varies considerably, including the number of major storms, how storms are spaced out, their wind speeds, how fast they move and — most importantly — the path they take and where they make landfall. The majority of GOM oil and gas infrastructure (yellow dots in Figure 1 below) is located off the Louisiana coast — and points just west and east of there — so storms that cross that swath can affect many offshore structures.
Figure 1. Oil and Gas Infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico. Source: Data Basin
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About the song
“Riders On The Storm” was written by Jim Morrison, Ray Manzarek, Robby Krieger and John Densmore (The Doors). The song appears as the fifth song on side two of The Doors’ sixth studio album, L.A. Woman. Released as a single in June 1971, the song went to #14 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart and #11 on the Billboard Easy Listening Singles chart. This was the last song recorded by all four band members and the last recording of Morrison's vocals. Personnel on the record were: Jim Morrison (vocals), Ray Manzarek (Fender Rhodes piano), Robby Krieger (guitar), John Densmore (drums), and Jerry Scheff (bass).
L.A. Woman was recorded in December 1970 and January 1971 at The Doors Workshop in Los Angeles, with Bruce Botnick and The Doors producing. Released in April 1971, the album went to #9 on the Billboard Top 200 Albums chart. It has been certified 2x Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America. Two singles were released from the LP.
The Doors were an American rock band formed in Los Angeles in 1965 by Jim Morrison, Ray Manzarek, Robby Krieger and John Densmore. They were the first American band to accumulate eight consecutive Gold albums and have sold over 100 million records worldwide. The Doors have released nine studio albums, five live albums, 21 compilation albums, and 21 singles. They are members of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame and have a Grammy Lifetime Achievement Award and a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. Jim Morrison died in 1971 and Ray Manzarek in 2013. Robby Krieger and John Densmore still perform occasionally as featured solo artists.
