Net Refinery Input Soars Near Five-Year Highs

Storms that form in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) during hurricane season don’t just dissipate once they make landfall and can inflict havoc on onshore assets. Storm damage and flooding can delay plant restarts, but so can power outages, as we saw when Hurricane Beryl hit the Texas/Louisiana region in July. And while there were no major refining or production assets in the path of Hurricane Helene, which slammed into the Florida Panhandle on September 26, widespread damage illustrated the potential risk to onshore infrastructure. In today’s RBN blog, we will examine how hurricanes have disrupted onshore assets and explain why power restoration is often the Achilles’ heel in plans to resume normal operations.

More than a decade ago, several U.S. refiners brought new hydrocracking capacity online, wagering that rising demand for middle distillates made such major investments necessary. They were good bets. Demand for jet fuel is expected to continue to grow, and while diesel demand is seen as relatively flat in the U.S. over the next few years, it will continue to climb globally through 2045, according to RBN’s recently released Future of Fuels report. In contrast, the report also sees domestic gasoline demand declines accelerating post-2026 and peaking globally by about 2030, as more consumers turn to electric vehicles (EVs). These contrasting trajectories for middle distillates vs. gasoline will put a growing premium on distillate-centric hydrocracking capacity. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine trends incentivizing hydrocracking capacity and how these units will allow U.S. refiners to maintain their competitiveness in a rapidly changing product market. 

The famous Field of Dreams misquote “If you build it, they will come” certainly has proved true for the midstream companies that added a record 18.7 MMbbl of crude oil storage capacity in PADD 2 in late 2015 and early 2016. During that six-month period, crude inventories in PADD 2 blasted 24.4 MMbbl higher to a record 155.6 MMbbl. And while PADD 2 oil stockpiles have been shrinking somewhat in recent weeks, they remain above 150 MMbbl—a mark the PADD had never seen before this year. Storage levels have been particularly high at the Cushing, OK storage and distribution hub within PADD 2. Why is so much crude being socked away?  Today, we continue our look at the new storage capacity being added in the U.S., and at why demand for storage has been so high.