Natural gas intake at the LNG Canada liquefaction site in Kitimat, BC pushed higher in August, averaging 606 MMcf/d (red column in chart below) based on publicly available data released by the British Columbia Energy Regulator (BCER), and just slightly above our previous estimate of 585 MMcf/d. With Train 1 having a nameplate gas intake capacity estimated at 1 Bcf/d, this would place the August utilization rate at 60%. Based on daily gas pipeline flow balances posted in RBN’s Canadian NatGas Billboard and the recent frequency of tanker loadings, we estimate that September average gas intake (green column) was lower in the range of 525 MMcf/d, or closer to 50% utilization.
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LNG Canada Gas Intake Hovering Near 50% Utilization of Train 1
LNG Canada Gas Intake Finally Ramping Higher
Thinking Out Loud - What Might Be the Timing and Scope of the Ramp Up of Gas into LNG Canada?
LNG Canada, under construction for nearly six years on Canada’s West Coast, is rapidly approaching the time when first gas will be entering the plant for testing and calibration of equipment, marking an important transformation for the Western Canadian natural gas market. This will kick off what will likely be about a yearlong testing process before officially entering commercial service in mid-2025. In today’s RBN blog, we consider daily gas flow data from the startup of similar-sized LNG plants on the U.S. Gulf Coast and develop a conjectural timeline for LNG Canada to help assess how much gas will flow to the site — and how soon — and when LNG exports might begin.