LNG Canada, under construction for nearly six years on Canada’s West Coast, is rapidly approaching the time when first gas will be entering the plant for testing and calibration of equipment, marking an important transformation for the Western Canadian natural gas market. This will kick off what will likely be about a yearlong testing process before officially entering commercial service in mid-2025. In today’s RBN blog, we consider daily gas flow data from the startup of similar-sized LNG plants on the U.S. Gulf Coast and develop a conjectural timeline for LNG Canada to help assess how much gas will flow to the site — and how soon — and when LNG exports might begin.
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The positive vibes continue to build for the startup of LNG Canada, Canada’s first LNG export facility, which is nearing completion outside the town of Kitimat, BC. Originally sanctioned for construction in October 2018 by a five-member consortium of Shell Canada (40%), Petronas (25%), PetroChina (15%), Mitsubishi (15%) and KOGAS (5%), the last five and a half years of hard work have seen the liquefaction plant (red diamond in Figure 1 below) and the pipeline that feeds gas to the site, Coastal GasLink (CGL, blue line), make steady progress toward what is expected to be the onset of commercial operations in the middle of next year.
Figure 1. Coastal GasLink Pipeline to LNG Canada. Source: RBN
The last official update from LNG Canada at the end of 2023 indicated that overall completion of the LNG export facility was pegged at 85%, with more recent industry speculation suggesting that site work is now well in excess of 90% complete. The CGL pipeline, in turn, was declared mechanically complete last November by TC Energy, its primary contractor and operator, meaning the pipe was ready to accept gas for shipment to the Kitimat site. In March, the CEO of LNG Canada made it clear that the site will be receiving gas this year, though a timeline was not specified, in preparation for testing of equipment. That part of the process could take more than a year (which partly motivates this blog).
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About the song
“Thinking Out Loud” was written by Ed Sheeran and Amy Wadge. It appears as the 11th cut on Ed Sheeran’s second studio album, x. It was released in February 2014 as the third single from the album and went to #1 on the U.S. Billboard Adult Contemporary, #2 on the Hot 100, and #3 on the Adult Top 40 charts. Jake Gosling produced the song. It became Sheeran’s top-selling single in the U.S. and has been certified 12x Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA). A music video was made for the song, featuring Sheeran dancing with professional dancer Brittany Cherry. It has been reported that Sheeran spent five hours a day while on tour practicing the dance routine with Cherry, trainer Paul Karmiryan and choreographer Nappytabs before they shot the video. Sheeran says he and longtime writing partner Amy Wadge wrote “Thinking Out Loud” in about 20 minutes using a guitar he was borrowing from friend and fellow recording artist Harry Styles. “Thinking Out Loud” earned Sheeran Grammy Awards for “Song of the Year” and “Best Pop Solo Performance” in 2016. Sheeran was later sued for plagiarism on “Thinking Out Loud” by the estate of Ed Townsend, who wrote the 1973 Marvin Gaye hit song “Let’s Get It On,” claiming Sheeran’s song was similar to theirs. The case was dismissed without prejudice in 2017. Personnel on the recording were: Ed Sheeran (vocals, acoustic guitar), Chris Leonard (electric guitar, Hammond organ, bass), Peter Gosling (acoustic piano) and Jake Gosling (keyboards, drum programming, percussion).
The album x was recorded in 2013-14 in various studios, with Benny Blanco, Ed Sheeran, Emile Haynie, Jake Gosling, Jeff Bhasker, Johnny McDaid, Pharrell Williams and Rick Rubin producing. The album was released in June 2014 and went to #1 on the Billboard Top 200 Albums chart. It has been certified 4x Platinum by the RIAA.
Ed Sheeran is an English singer, songwriter, record producer and actor. He has sold more than 150 million records worldwide. He has released seven studio albums, 19 EPs, and 42 singles. Sheehan has also appeared in a few television shows and movies, often playing himself. He has won one American Music Award, six Billboard Music Awards, 11 BMI Awards, five Brit Awards, four Grammy Awards, four Ivor Novello Awards, two MTV Video Music Awards, and one World Music Award. Sheeran continues to record and tour and will begin his 2024 Mathematic Tour in May.
