Fluor Corporation announced on June 1 that its joint venture with JGC Corporation, JGC Fluor BC LNG II, received a Limited Notice To Proceed” (LNTP) for the proposed Phase 2 expansion of LNG Canada.
Shell’s plan to acquire Western Canadian E&P ARC Resources Ltd. affirms the global energy giant’s new strategic focus, enhances the prospects for Phase 2 of LNG Canada, and supports the view that the Montney Shale may be replacing the Permian as the epicenter of oil and gas M&A.
ARC Resources, one of the largest Montney producers in Western Canada, announced an agreement to be acquired by Shell. ARC has four times the Montney production that Shell has, including over 800 MMcf/d of natural gas production in British Columbia, which would go along way to providing Shell with its ~840 MMcf/d of required feedstock for Phase 2 of LNG Canada, should Phase 2 get the green light. The deal would also bolster Shell's condensate-rich Montney drilling inventory, as ARC is one of the largest condensate producers in Canada.
It’s shaping up to be an incredible year for U.S. LNG growth, with record levels of feedgas demand and exports along with progress on the regulatory front, as the Trump administration has cleared away hurdles that had previously stalled project development. Now, Cheniere Energy has announced a positive final investment decision (FID) on its Corpus Christi Midscale expansion. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at the Midscale project and others that could move forward this year.
Western Canada’s natural gas market never really seems to catch a break. Prices this winter have remained well below those across much of the rest of North America thanks to an all-too-common combination of insufficient pipeline export capacity from the region, bloated gas storage and robust supply growth. Even with forward price prospects for much of the rest of the continent looking buoyant, with more gas expected to head to expanding Gulf Coast LNG terminals and a storage-refill season that will be stronger than last year, price upside for Western Canada looks to be minimal at best and will be partly dependent on the rate of gas intake to LNG Canada, as we explain in today’s RBN blog.
Shipping large volumes of LNG from Canada’s West Coast across the Pacific Ocean to gas-hungry markets in Asia has been a dream nearly two decades in the making. After a great deal of work and patience, three projects have moved into the construction phase, with the most advanced — LNG Canada — on the cusp of accepting its first test-gas volumes, with exports possible by the end of the year. Even with all this progress, three additional projects are vying for the opportunity to join Canada’s LNG export party, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog.
Developers have been kicking around plans for LNG exports from British Columbia (BC), Canada’s westernmost province, for more than a decade, with more than 20 projects on the drawing board at one point. That long list has been whittled down to just three that have reached the point of final investment decision (FID) — a hard plan to proceed to construction and startup. One of those projects, LNG Canada, should be sending out LNG as soon as the end of this year, placing Canada firmly on the map of LNG-exporting nations. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at the three projects and hint at plans by a handful of contenders vying to join the LNG export party.
LNG Canada, under construction for nearly six years on Canada’s West Coast, is rapidly approaching the time when first gas will be entering the plant for testing and calibration of equipment, marking an important transformation for the Western Canadian natural gas market. This will kick off what will likely be about a yearlong testing process before officially entering commercial service in mid-2025. In today’s RBN blog, we consider daily gas flow data from the startup of similar-sized LNG plants on the U.S. Gulf Coast and develop a conjectural timeline for LNG Canada to help assess how much gas will flow to the site — and how soon — and when LNG exports might begin.
Western Canada’s natural gas production has been on a roll in the past couple of years, reaching a record 17.3 Bcf/d in 2022. Another year of strong growth was expected in 2023, but Mother Nature had other plans — as usual. First, a milder-than-average heating season left plenty of gas in storage, pushing natural gas prices lower across North America. Second, tinder-dry conditions in some of the best gas production areas in Alberta and British Columbia sparked what so far has been a very active wildfire season — and forced producers to curtail their gas output numerous times in May and June. From our early expectations for production growth of 1.2 to 1.4 Bcf/d this year, the impacts from wildfires and a healthy dose of pipeline maintenance has chopped our 2023 production growth outlook to just 0.4 Bcf/d. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, this slowdown in growth is exactly the opposite of what’s needed to avoid a runup in prices. Strong production momentum will be required into 2024 and 2025 to deal with the startup of the LNG Canada export facility, ongoing Canadian gas demand growth and pipeline exports to the U.S.
Despite many challenges, natural gas production in Western Canada has been hitting record highs this year, powered by what seems to be the inexhaustible energy of the unconventional Montney formation. This immense resource remains the primary focus of most Canadian gas producers, and those that operate in the British Columbia portion of the Montney know they have their work cut out for them in the next few years if they are to meet the growing need for gas, especially when the LNG Canada export terminal comes online mid-decade. In today’s RBN blog, we update the Montney’s production and productivity trends in British Columbia and evaluate whether enough progress is being made.
