Deep Panuke

The shutdown of natural gas production from the Sable Offshore Energy Project on Canada’s East Coast as of January 1, 2019, increased the Canadian Maritimes’ reliance on gas exports from New England this winter as consumers worked to link up with fresh supply to replace SOEP. The tightening supply in the region has prompted expansion plans from TransCanada to move more Western Canadian and Marcellus/Utica gas to New England utilizing its Mainline and other eastern systems. Today, we conclude our series examining the potential impacts of SOEP’s demise by examining new plans to bring more gas to the region. 

After 19 years of natural gas production from the waters off the Canadian Maritime provinces, ExxonMobil, operator of the Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP), shut down production there, effective January 1, 2019. The closure further limits gas supply options for the already supply-constrained Maritimes and New England regions. Will the shutdown put even more stress on the already overtaxed gas pipeline system in New England? And will it spur increased flows of Western Canadian gas into northern New England and Canada’s Maritime provinces? Today, we continue our series examining the potential impacts of SOEP’s demise on New England gas markets.

After 19 years of natural gas production from the waters off the Canadian Maritime provinces, ExxonMobil, operator of the Sable Offshore Energy Project, shut down production there effective January 1, 2019. Though the closure had been announced well in advance, the end of SOEP output has left the two natural gas-consuming provinces in the region, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, without any indigenous gas supplies. It’s also made them fully reliant on either pipeline gas from the U.S. Northeast and Western Canada or imported volumes of LNG into the Canaport Energy terminal in New Brunswick. Will the shutdown put even more stress on the already overtaxed gas pipeline system in New England? And will it spur increased flows of Western Canadian gas into northern New England and the Maritimes? Today, in Part 1 of this blog series, we begin an examination of the potential impacts of SOEP’s demise on New England and Eastern Canadian gas markets.

As if there weren’t enough reasons to add new natural gas pipeline capacity through New England, it’s time to consider another: the Sable Island and Deep Panuke gas production areas off the coast of Nova Scotia are quickly losing their oomph, and soon the Canadian Maritimes will need to rely more heavily on gas from other, more distant sources, including the Marcellus. Developing pipelines to move large volumes of Marcellus gas through New England to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia will not be easy though. Today we continue our look at the challenges of supplying gas to New England and its northern neighbors.

Despite the challenges they would likely face, as many as four companies are exploring the possibility of exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Canadian Maritimes [1] to Europe, Latin America and Asia. Their thinking is, with Marcellus natural gas production expected to continue increasing, with Sable Island and Deep Panuke gas just offshore, and Europe little more than a week’s boat ride away, LNG exports from Nova Scotia and New Brunswick may well make economic sense. But LNG export terminals are among the most capital-intensive projects; also, piping Marcellus gas through New England—a region with serious wintertime gas-delivery constraints—to the Maritimes would require major pipeline upgrades. Today we look into the LNG project plans and the pipeline expansion needs in more detail.

With Marcellus natural gas production expected to continue increasing, several companies are proposing projects to pipe a portion of the output through New England to Canada’s Maritime Provinces, where the gas would be liquefied and exported to Europe, Latin America and maybe even Asia. Some offshore Atlantic Basin gas production from Sable Island and Deep Panuke would be mixed in too. Such plans for as many as four new LNG export facilities in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick hinge on the development of new pipeline capacity through New England to the existing Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline (MNP), which would be reversed to flow north. Is this a golden opportunity or an overreach?  Today we examine prospects for exporting Marcellus gas through new Eastern Canadian LNG facilities.

Natural gas from the Deep Panuke field off Nova Scotia will start flowing any day now. But it is arriving three years late, and a lot has changed since 2010. Most important for Repsol, the exclusive marketer of Deep Panuke gas, the New England market that was supposed to be the primary buyer is being courted by sellers of now-abundant Marcellus gas. And Spectra Energy, Kinder Morgan and others are building and planning the pipeline capacity needed to reliably deliver large volumes of gas to New England from the Marcellus. Today we conclude our two part  analysis of the impact that this new supply will have on the region.

Natural gas from the Deep Panuke field off the coast of Nova Scotia could have gained a strong foothold in New England during the past few years—if the gas had started flowing in 2010, as had been the plan. New England, with its shift to gas-fired power generation and its wintertime heating needs, surely has needed the gas; it still does. Today, with the first Deep Panuke gas finally expected to come ashore in the next few weeks, we ask, can the new gas from Nova Scotia push its way into New England, or will the coming influx of Marcellus gas into the six-state region push Deep Panuke gas back across the border?