With a Little Help From My Friends – For the U.S. Refining Sector, ‘Energy Dominance’ Doesn’t Mean Going it Alone

A major theme under the second Trump administration has been the concept of “energy dominance,” with a focus on expanded drilling, increased oil and gas production, and an easier path to project permitting and approvals, especially for LNG exports. Despite that shift in approach, the U.S. remains critically intertwined with the global market as a source of supply and demand for everything from crude oil and feedstocks to gasoline and renewable fuels. In today’s RBN blog, we explain why the goal of “energy dominance” doesn’t mean going it alone, especially when it comes to the refining sector.

For a prime example of the U.S.’s advantageous position, let’s focus on the refining sector. The U.S. boasts the world’s second-largest refining complex (after China) but has the most complex/dynamic facilities and significant edges over other developed economies in access to crude oil and natural gas. And while domestic demand may be stagnating, the U.S. remains a global leader in refined product exports, in large part due to the structural advantages noted above, but also, and probably even more importantly, due to the free-market environment in which the industry is allowed to operate. 

The other major refining markets face their own set of headwinds. While China surpassed the U.S. to become the largest global refiner by capacity in 2023, it remains focused on meeting domestic, not export demand. Refined product demand growth there is slowing, due in large part to the increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and a greater focus on petrochemical production, along with a deteriorating demographic environment. Refinery capacity additions are also slowing in the Middle East, where despite their advantaged crude supply refiners face high capital costs and significant geopolitical risks — highlighted by the ongoing military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, and retaliatory strikes by Iran against some of its neighbors. India’s refining sector has seen the fastest growth in recent years, and its private refiners are large, complex and efficient. It has benefited from access to sanctioned Russian crude since the invasion of Ukraine, and additional growth in Venezuelan crude production could bring future benefits (more on Venezuela below), but India will remain dependent on imported crude and natural gas, with the potential for additional regulatory issues and higher costs.

We should also note the downbeat outlook for Russian and European refiners. For Russia, continued sanctions and a lack of outside investment (and technology) are causing a “slow bleed” in refinery conditions and capabilities. The longer the war with Ukraine continues, the more significant the impacts are likely to be. We should also note those problems won’t automatically disappear if/when the war ends, and Russian refiners could find themselves with decreased (or no) access to European markets for the long term. The loss of Russian crude oil and natural gas also poses major challenges for European refiners, who are already disadvantaged by higher operating costs, a difficult regulatory environment, declining populations and stagnant economic growth. 

The U.S. refining sector has a number of inherent advantages, but a significant part of its success is that it doesn’t operate as an island unto itself. For starters, U.S. refiners import significant volumes of crude and feedstocks — primarily heavy crude/resid and low-cost intermediates, which complex refineries can upgrade very cost effectively. As shown in Figure 1 below, the U.S. has continued to import significant quantities of crude oil (blue line) even as domestic production (green line) has more than doubled over the past 15 years and crude exports (orange line) have steadily moved higher, now averaging about 4 MMb/d. (That level of connectedness also means the U.S. isn't insulated from market-shifting global events, such as the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which has pushed the price of crude oil sharply higher.)