Global LNG markets have been in overdrive this winter — it seems the world just can’t get enough of the super-cooled natural gas. Moreover, with long-term LNG demand growth in Asia appearing robust well into the next decade, the time would seem ripe to reconsider expanded export opportunities from Canada’s West Coast, one of the closest and potentially largest sources of LNG for Asian buyers. With one major LNG export project already under construction, at least one more awaiting the final go-ahead, and two more serious proposals having emerged last year, Canada’s outlook for additional LNG sales to Asia is clearly bright. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss recent developments regarding Canadian LNG projects.
The prospects for exporting LNG from British Columbia’s West Coast have been waxing and waning over the past decade. At one point in the early 2010s, more than a dozen projects were on the drawing board with a combined liquefaction capacity of 25.2 Bcf/d, or 50% higher than all of Canada’s current natural gas production (see Slip Sliding Away). In the years since, North American gas and global LNG markets have evolved, BC’s regulatory and environmental hurdles have been higher, and Western Canada has faced a period of very weak natural gas pricing (from 2017 to 2019). With the passage of time, all but one project fell by the wayside, leaving just the Shell-led LNG Canada export project, which has been under construction at Kitimat, BC, since late 2018 with commercial start-up slated for mid-2025.
Canadian crude output is rising, requiring new export routes. As traditional pathways face constraints, the U.S. Rockies—especially the Guernsey, WY hub—are emerging as key corridors for moving Canadian heavy crude to downstream markets, including the Gulf Coast.
Over the past 12 months, global LNG markets have been much tighter, pushing prices to record highs. Lately, most of the focus has been on the increased demand for LNG in Europe (see Upside Down), particularly since Germany scrapped the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. With Europe sourcing an increasing portion of its gas as LNG, it has been bidding higher for cargoes that might have gone to Asia otherwise. Meanwhile, natural gas demand on the U.S. West Coast — a significant market for Western Canadian gas — is expected to wane in the long-term as the region increasingly eschews hydrocarbons. On top of that, BC’s natural gas production has been near record highs.
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About the song
“You Still Believe in Me” was written by Brian Wilson and Tony Asher and appears as the second song on side one of The Beach Boys’ 11th studio album, Pet Sounds. It was the first song that Brian Wilson and Tony Asher collaborated on. The pair of Wilson and Asher were also responsible for the bobby-pin-plucked piano string intro to “You Still Believe in Me.” The song was recorded between October 1965 and February 1966 at Western Studios in Hollywood, CA. Personnel on the record were: Brian Wilson (lead vocals), Brian Wilson, Marilyn Wilson, Carl Wilson, Dennis Wilson, Mike Love, Al Jardine, Bruce Johnston (backing vocals), Hal Blaine (bicycle horn, finger cymbals, percussion), Carol Kaye (electric bass), Lyle Ritz (acoustic bass), Glen Campbell (electric 12 string guitar), Barney Kessel (electric mando guitar), Al de Lory (harpsichord), Steve Douglas (acoustic grand piano), Bill Green, Jay Migliori, Jim Horn, Plas Johnson (clarinet), and Julius Wechter (bicycle bell, Timpani).
Pet Sounds was recorded between July 1965 and April 1966 at Western Studios, Gold Star, Columbia, and Sunset Sound in Hollywood. Released in May 1966, the album went to #10 on the Billboard 200 Albums chart and has been certified Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America. It has made every list of the greatest albums of all time. The LP was produced by Brian Wilson a year after he quit touring with The Beach Boys. His goal with Pet Sounds was to create “the greatest rock album ever made,” a cohesive work with no filler material. It was a revolutionary album in the field of record production, with Wilson elevating the role of artist/producer within the music industry. Three singles were released from the LP.
The Beach Boys are an American rock band formed in Hawthorne, CA, in 1961 by brothers Brian, Carl, and Dennis Wilson, cousin Mike Love, and friend Al Jardine. They have released 29 studio albums, eight live albums, 55 compilation albums, 23 EPs, and 71 singles, and have sold over 100 million records worldwide. The Beach Boys are members of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and the Vocal Group Hall of Fame. The Pet Sounds album is in the Grammy Hall of Fame and preserved in the Recording Registry of the Library of Congress. Dennis Wilson died in 1983. Carl Wilson died in 1998. Brian Wilson still tours as a solo artist, and Mike Love, accompanied by touring musicians, still tours under The Beach Boys name.
Comments
I guess since this morning Shell has both LNG money looking for a home and a hole in their LNG supply portfolio. We'll see if they put their 27.5% of Sakhalin into the additional 2 trains at LNG Canada.