Outbound natural gas flows from Appalachia over the weekend hit a new record high of 17.3 Bcf/d and averaged 16.7 Bcf/d for April — an all-time high for any month. That’s despite pipeline maintenance season being well underway last month and intermittently curtailing production and outflow capacity. Utilization rates of takeaway pipelines from the region are soaring above 90%, with little more than 1 Bcf/d of spare exit capacity for outflows of surplus Northeast production. Whether that will be enough to stave off severe constraints and discounted pricing in Appalachia in what’s left of the spring season, and again in the fall will depend on how much surplus gas is left after meeting in-region consumption and storage refill requirements. What happens when seasonal demand declines occur in May and June? In today’s blog, we wrap up our analysis of current outbound capacity utilization and where that leaves the Northeast gas market this spring.
This is Part 6 of our blog series providing an update on Appalachian gas market fundamentals. As we said in Part 1, Northeast gas production growth in 2020 contributed to increased takeaway constraints, particularly during the low-demand fall shoulder season, when storage levels also soared. This happened despite producers implementing real-time shut-ins in response to uneconomic prices. The result was weaker Appalachia basis differentials in 2020 vs. 2019. In Part 2, we delved deeper into Appalachian production and the disparate patterns emerging in each of the sub-regions. While production in Ohio is at the lowest level in three years, other regions within the Marcellus/Utica play have been trending near their historical highs or even setting new records.
In the next several episodes of the series, we built upon the production story and focused on what that has meant for the region’s outbound flows and takeaway capacity utilization. Speaking of records, we started with a bang in Part 3 with a look at record outflows during Winter Storm Uri in February. Following that obligatory response to exceptional market events, a few weeks ago we got back on track and in Part 4, we began a pipe-by-pipe analysis of Appalachia’s supply takeaway routes, starting with utilization on the six pipelines that make up the Southeast and Gulf Coast corridors. From that, we concluded that utilization rates along those routes have been high. As of late March, they were already approaching 90% of the combined 10.4 Bcf/d of their capacity. In April, these southbound flows increased further, averaging 9.7 Bcf/d, or 93% of capacity, and leaving just 700 MMcf/d of spare exit capacity as we head into the lowest demand months for the Northeast (May and June).
Join Backstage Pass to Read Full Article
About the song
"Headed for a Heartbreak" was written by Kip Winger and appears as the 10th song on side two of Winger's debut album, Winger. Released as a single in May 1989, the song went to #19 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles chart. Personnel on the record were: Kip Winger (lead vocals, bass, keyboards), Reb Beach (guitars, backing vocals), Paul Taylor (keyboards, backing vocals), and Rod Morgenstein (drums, backing vocals).
Winger was recorded at Atlantic Studios in New York City during 1988, with Beau Hill producing. Released in August 1988, the album went to #21 on the Billboard Top 200 Albums chart and has been certified Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America. Four singles were released from the album.
Winger is an American hair metal band formed in New York City by Kip Winger in 1988. They have released six studio albums, one live album, two compilation albums, and eight singles. In the ’90s, the popular MTV series Beavis and Butt-Head constantly made fun of the band. This, along with the arrival of grunge, led to a fall in record sales and the dissolution of the band in 1994. The band has staged several reunion tours and released three new albums since then, the latest in 2014. Kip Winger also has a solo career, and the other band members are involved in various touring and recording projects.
