Like everything else in 2020, the propane market has been exceedingly difficult to navigate. So far this year, we’ve seen Mont Belvieu propane prices down to 24 cents/gallon (c/gal) and up to 57 cents. Exports continue to increase, but stocks seem to be reasonably healthy, partly thanks to November so far being one of the warmest on record. Propane production was projected to dip in the fourth quarter but has held up pretty well. During the spring there was considerable concern about the possibility of a tight supply-demand situation this winter, but so far, market conditions seem relatively benign. Does that mean we are in the clear for winter 2020-21? Unfortunately, there may be a few gotchas still out there. As always, a lot depends on the weather. But there are other factors at work that could surprise us because some of the statistics we’ve relied on in the past to gauge what’s ahead are not what they used to be. In today’s blog, we begin a series looking at those factors.
It’s a truism in the propane business — as well as any other commodity market — that when inventories are low relative to total demand, prices increase. That is particularly relevant for today’s propane market, because demand has been transformed over the past few years by exports — in fact, the average volume of exports now exceeds total U.S. propane consumption. The implication is that it now takes more inventory in the ground throughout the winter to support the combination of U.S. demand and exports. But how much more inventory is enough? And how should we factor in the potential for further increases in exports? And at the same time, the market is still facing the possibility of declining production due to COVID-related drilling cutbacks. To make sense out of what is going on, let’s start with a review of how crude oil, natural gas, and propane markets have behaved so far this year.
Join Backstage Pass to Read Full Article
About the song
"Now You See It (Now You Don't)” is credited as being written by Ozzy Osbourne, but in fact was co-written by Bob Daisley and Ozzy Osbourne. The song appears as the third tune on Osbourne's third solo studio album, Bark at the Moon. Although all of the songwriting credits on the album are attributed to Ozzy Osbourne, bassist Bob Daisley and guitarist Jake E. Lee have said that they wrote most of the lyrics and music on the record. They claim that they signed a buyout contract with Ozzy's wife and manager Sharon Osbourne forgoing any songwriting credit on the record. Personnel on the record were: Ozzy Osbourne (vocals), Jake E. Lee (guitars, backing vocals), Bob Daisley (bass, backing vocals), Tommy Aldridge (drums), and Don Airey (keyboards).
Bark at the Moon was recorded at Ridge Farm Studios in Rusper, England, in early 1983. Produced by Ozzy Osbourne, Bob Daisley, and Max Norman, the album was released in November 1983. It went to #19 on the Billboard Top 200 Albums chart, and has been certified 3X Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America.
Ozzy Osbourne is an English singer, songwriter, and television personality. He came to prominence as the lead singer and front man of British heavy metal band, Black Sabbath, and has also had a successful career as a solo artist. He has released 10 albums as a member of Black Sabbath, as well as 12 studio albums, five live albums, seven compilation albums, five EPs, and 63 singles as a solo artist. Osbourne has won one Grammy Award, and is a member of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame with Black Sabbath, and the UK Music Hall of Fame as a member of Black Sabbath and as a solo artist. In the early 2000s, Osbourne became a reality television star, appearing as himself, along with wife Sharon and two of their three children, Kelly and Jack, on the hit series, The Osbournes. He still records and tours, and is currently at work with producer Andrew Watt on the follow-up album to his February 2020 release, Ordinary Man.
