The Midland-to-Houston crude oil differential has undergone a dramatic round trip over the past several months. As the charts below show, the spread surged to its highest levels in years during the early months of the Iran war before collapsing back toward historical norms. After averaging less than $0.35/bbl through most of 2023-2025 (left graph), the differential briefly exceeded $3/bbl on a daily basis in April 2026 (right graph) and pushed the monthly average to levels not seen since major Permian pipeline capacity constraints were a recurring concern back in 2018-19.
Featured Articles
- Blog
How’s It Going to Be – How a Prolonged Conflict with Iran Could Disrupt U.S. Gasoline, Jet and Diesel Markets
The U.S. is seeing softer domestic demand for traditional fuels, but pockets of the country remain highly dependent on imported gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. Today, we’ll zero in on which PADDs are at the highest risk for shortages and price spikes if the Iran war drags on for an extended period.
- Analyst Insight
Geopolitical Risk Premium Drives Surge in Crude Prices To Above $90/bbl
The start of March brought extraordinary volatility to crude markets. Multiple global benchmarks and regional grades posted sharp gains, with several trading at or near recent highs.
- Blog
Big Time – Exchange of Barrels from U.S. SPR Would Drop Stocks to Lowest Levels Since the 1980s
Today, we detail U.S. plans to release 172 MMbbl from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, examine how it compares with U.S. actions after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and why the SPR could drop to levels not seen since the Reagan administration.
