Renewed conflict in the Middle East dominated the week ended July 17, 2026, sending crude prices sharply higher as Gulf Coast crack spreads soared to record levels (yellow oval in graph below). The benchmark 3-2-1 crack spread skyrocketed above $62/bbl after reaching a record high earlier in the week, driven primarily by exceptionally strong middle distillate margins. Diesel cracks and gasoline cracks soared to their strongest level in four years, highlighting robust product demand despite the sharp increase in crude prices. Rather than eroding refining economics, higher crude prices were more than offset by stronger product values, allowing refiners to preserve historically attractive margins.
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Refinery Utilization Holds Above 96% as Strong Diesel Margins Drive Throughput
The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) for the week ended July 17 shows that U.S. refinery crude runs eased by 58 Mb/d to just over 17 MMb/d. Utilization remained exceptionally high at 96.1%, underscoring refiners' willingness to maximize throughput as refiners sought to capitalize on historically attractive processing economics.
Double-Edged Sword – Refinery ‘Capacity Creep,’ Falling Inventories May Limit U.S. Crude Export Surge
U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025, up nearly 1.6 MMb/d from 2023, but crude export volumes remained remarkably stable — at or very near 4.1 MMb/d — until a recent Iran-related surge. A key reason: “capacity creep” expansion projects at several Gulf Coast refineries.
For the Love of Money – The Factors Keeping Refined Product Prices High, Even as Crude Prices Fall
Refined product prices have remained elevated this summer even as crude oil prices have fallen from their 2026 highs set just a few months ago. In today’s RBN blog, we look at several factors that help explain the seeming disconnect between product prices and crude oil prices.