Refiners have a strong incentive to keep running, but gasoline inventories are still struggling to keep pace. According to the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) for the week ended September 25, U.S. motor gasoline stocks declined 1.7 MMbbl to just above 204 MMbbl, their lowest level since November 7, 2014. As discussed in this week's Crude Billboard, the Midwest remains particularly tight, with PADD II inventories falling to approximately 41.8 MMbbl, nearly 6 MMbbl below the same week in 2025 and the lowest level on record for the region. One particular refinery outage to note was Exxon’s Joliet, Illinois refinery. Its 275 Mb/d CDU was shut at 3:16 pm on September 13 due to a power outage.
That thin inventory cushion leaves little room for production losses as fall maintenance and unplanned outages reduce refinery throughput. The supply squeeze has helped keep all eyes on this year’s extraordinary refining economics. Gasoline cracks surged to $68.74/bbl midweek (far right of orange line in chart below) before easing to just above $60/bbl at Friday’s close, three times their year-ago level, helping push the benchmark 3-2-1 crack to a record $80.63/bbl (blue line in chart below). Together, those margins provide a compelling reason for refiners to sustain elevated runs where operating schedules allow, even as maintenance limits their ability to replenish depleted product inventories.
