As discussed in this week’s Crude Billboard, the EIA’s latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) shows how strong refinery demand and exports can quickly tighten U.S. crude balances, even as imports rise. For the week ended August 28, refinery utilization reached 98%, its highest level since August 2018, while crude exports climbed to 4.5 MMb/d. Together, those outlets drove the first commercial crude draw in five weeks despite a more than 600 Mb/d increase in imports.
Refiners continue to run hard to capitalize on elevated product prices and strong margins. The benchmark 3-2-1 crack spread ended last week at $65.91/bbl as stronger gasoline economics more than offset slightly weaker diesel margins. Even after declining, the diesel crack remained exceptionally strong at $93.74/bbl, more than three times its year-ago level, underscoring continued tightness in distillate markets.
Net refinery input of 17.5 MMb/d (yellow dashed oval in chart below) is supporting product supply, but the improvement remains uneven. A sizable PADD III build lifted national distillate inventories, while East Coast stocks fell to a record-low 19.3 MMbbl. With utilization already near 100%, refiners have limited ability to respond to further tightness by raising output. Strong margins can keep available capacity running, but they cannot create additional capacity, leaving product balances vulnerable to maintenance, unplanned outages and storm-related disruptions.
