On December 12, LNG Canada posted a community notification that increased flaring at its site began on December 4 and would run for a period of 60 days (i.e. to early February). Although impossible to make a direct correlation between gas intake, testing and the height of the flare (up to 20 meters, ~65 feet), we would estimate that up to 100 MMcf/d of gas might be entering the plant over the next 60 days. Based on that estimate, that would equate as 6 Bcf in 60 days, some of which is likely to be converted to LNG and stored onsite. A more aggressive estimate of 12 Bcf aggregate intake in 60 days, or 200 MMcf/d, would certainly suggest that there would very likely be LNG produced and placed in onsite storage.
As such, RBN believes that LNG production is now part of the activities at LNG Canada, if it has not already taken place with some prior testing. At some point, the site’s available LNG storage tank at ~5 Bcf equivalent is going to be filled, with the requirement that some LNG be loaded onto an LNG tanker for export. Loading arms and the export dock, which can handle two tankers simultaneously, will have to be fully tested at some point in the commissioning process. Will we have a commissioning export cargo by the end of this year or early January resulting from LNG production? Maybe. We continue to closely monitor shipping activity at the LNG Canada site.
