The year-on-year gain in U.S. LNG feedgas demand has been the single biggest factor behind the soaring natural gas prices and storage shortfall this year. And there is more of that demand on the horizon. Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass Train 6 and Venture Global’s new Calcasieu Pass facility are due to start service in the first half of 2022. However, feedgas volume is likely to ramp up ahead of the new year as both projects progress through the commissioning phase and aim to export their first commissioning cargoes before the end of the year. How soon could that incremental feedgas demand show up? Getting a handle on the timing requires an understanding of how a liquefaction plant works and the various steps of the commissioning process. Today, we start a short series on what’s involved when bringing a liquefaction plant online and what that can tell us about the timing of incremental feedgas flows this fall/winter.
Before we get to today’s topic, we’d be remiss if we didn’t touch on the devastating impact of what is now Tropical Depression Ida. Ida made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane just before noon on Sunday near Port Fourchon along the eastern Louisiana coastline and remained a hurricane as it moved north toward Mississippi, bringing with it 6- to 12-foot storm surges, 150-mph winds and flash flooding. Entergy reported extensive damage with more than 2,000 miles of transmission lines out of service and nearly 1 million customers without power early Monday, primarily in eastern Louisiana, saying it could be weeks before power will be restored in the hardest hit areas. As for Louisiana’s Gulf Coast LNG operations, Ida’s easterly track largely spared the LNG export facilities from damage or shutdowns, and terminal operations appear to have remained relatively stable with only a temporary disruption to port and marine activity over the weekend. Lower 48 LNG feedgas deliveries as of Monday were at 9.6 Bcf/d, down about 600 MMcf/d from recent days, with all that attributable to a drop in flows to Sabine Pass. However, that may be more due to maintenance on Transco Pipeline than to storm impacts.
Turning back to the topic of today’s blog — the commissioning stages and timing of new feedgas demand this fall — when we last discussed the process of starting up new liquefaction trains back in 2019, LNG feedgas deliveries were just topping 5 Bcf/d, but there was no less than 30 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa), equivalent to ~4 Bcf/d of liquefaction capacity, that was scheduled to come online over the course of that year. There’s nowhere near that amount of liquefaction due online in the next few months or even in the next couple of years. Nevertheless, feedgas requirements of LNG export facilities have been just as big a driver of the Lower 48 gas market this year as they were back then and will continue to be closely watched heading into this winter.
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About the song
"Hear My Train A Comin'" is a slow blues written by Jimi Hendrix. It has appeared in several live, studio, and jam sessions involving Hendrix between 1967 and 1970. No versions of the song were ever completed to Hendrix's satisfaction before his death in 1970. The first known recording of the song was with the Jimi Hendrix Experience, with Mitch Mitchell on drums and Noel Redding on bass for the BBC Top Gear radio program in December 1967. Hendrix has also called the song "Getting My Heart Back Together" in some versions. It has appeared in various forms on the albums: Radio One, BBC Sessions, Blues, Woodstock, Woodstock Two, Live at Woodstock, Midnight Lightning, Jimi Hendrix Experience Box Set, Valleys of Neptune, Both Sides of the Sky, as well as People, Hell, and Angels. Live performances of the tune can be seen in the films: Experience, Jimi Hendrix, Woodstock, Rainbow Bridge, and Jimi Plays Berkeley. Several live versions of the song can be streamed for free at the Experience Hendrix official website.
Jimi Hendrix was an American guitarist, singer, songwriter, and musician from Seattle, Washington. He started playing guitar when he was 15. After playing the chittlin' circuit in his early 20s with The Isley Brothers, Little Richard, Wilson Pickett, and Curtis Knight, he was discovered at the Cafe Wha? in New York City by Animals bassist Chas Chandler. Chandler became Hendrix's manager and producer, and moved him to London. Hendrix soon became a sensation in London and secured a record deal. He achieved fame in the U.S. after his appearance at the Monterey Pop Festival in 1967. Hendrix released three studio albums, three live albums, and 14 singles with the Experience. He released 13 studio albums, 28 live albums, 19 compilation albums, 27 EPs and 28 singles. He also recorded one live album with the Band of Gypsys, rather than his original group. Another 23 “official bootleg” albums were released posthumously. He is a member of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and the UK Music Hall of Fame, and has a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. He won two Grammy Awards, a Grammy Lifetime Achievement Award, and has a statue and park named after him in Seattle. He is considered by many to be one of the most influential guitarists and musicians to have ever lived. Hendrix died in London in September 1970. He was 27 years old.
