Posts from Housley Carr

Tuesday, 04/25/2017

In only three years, the international liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has undergone a major transformation. The old order, founded on long-term, bilateral contracts with LNG prices linked to crude oil prices, is being replaced by a more-fluid, more-competitive paradigm. That’s good news for LNG buyers, who are benefiting from a supply glut and lower LNG prices—the twin results of slower-than-expected demand growth in 2014-15 and the addition of several new liquefaction/LNG export facilities in Australia and the U.S. But the new paradigm poses a challenge for facility developers: How do they line up commitments for new liquefaction/LNG export capacity that will be needed a few years from now in a market characterized by LNG oversupply and rock-bottom prices? Today we begin a two-part series that considers the hurdles developers face and which types of projects may have the best prospects.

Monday, 04/24/2017

The Permian may be grabbing most of the energy headlines lately, but a noteworthy share of crude oil production growth the U.S. experiences over the next two or three years is sure to come from the Gulf of Mexico. There, far from the Delaware Basin land rush and the frenzy to build new Permian-to-wherever pipelines, a handful of deepwater production stalwarts are completing new wells — at relatively low cost — that connect to existing offshore platforms. Taken together, these projects are expected to increase the Gulf’s output by more than 300 Mb/d by the end of 2018. Today we look at the Gulf’s under-the-radar growth in oil output and the prospects for continued expansion there.

Monday, 04/17/2017

In the past few years, producers in shale and tight-oil plays have made great strides in reducing their drilling costs and improving the productivity of their wells. But the trends toward much longer laterals and high-intensity well completions have significantly increased the volumes of sand being used—some individual well completions use enough sand to fill 100 railcars or more! An even bigger concern for many producers is the rising cost of disposing of produced water—that is, the water that emerges with hydrocarbons from these supersized wells. Today we begin a surfing-themed series that focuses on how the two key components of any beach vacation—sand and water—are impacting producer profitability.

Sunday, 04/09/2017

The build-out of Houston-area crude oil storage and marine terminal capacity continues, and as it does, ship congestion in the Houston Ship Channel worsens. Which raises the question, why not develop more crude storage and marine docks outside the Ship Channel that still offers strong pipeline connectivity to crude production areas, the Cushing hub and Houston-area refineries—plus easier access to the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico? That’s a key premise behind Oiltanking’s first major Gulf Coast expansion since the February 2015 sale of most of Oiltanking’s assets in the region to Enterprise Products Partners. Today we discuss Oiltanking’s plan to add crude storage and a marine terminal in Texas City, TX.

Thursday, 04/06/2017

Rising natural gas exports from South Texas and increasing production of “associated” gas in the Permian Basin are driving the development of several new gas pipelines from West Texas to the Agua Dulce gas hub and nearby Corpus Christi. The age-old questions apply: How much new pipeline capacity will be needed, and how soon? The construction of these new pipelines also raises the question of how a potential flood of new gas supply from the Permian to the South Texas coast might affect plans by others to flow gas down the coast from Houston. Today we continue our look at proposed gas pipelines from the Permian to Agua Dulce and Corpus Christi with a review of two more projects and their potential impact.

Monday, 04/03/2017

The combination of rising production of “associated” natural gas in the Permian Basin and rising exports of pipeline gas to Mexico—and soon, LNG on ships out of planned South Texas export terminals—is driving the need for new gas pipelines from the Permian to the Corpus Christi area, including the all-important Agua Dulce gas hub in Nueces County, TX. Yesterday (Monday, April 3), NAmerico Partners unveiled plans for Pecos Trail, a proposed 468-mile, 1.85-billion-cubic-feet-a-day pipeline aimed squarely at linking emerging gas supply with emerging gas demand. Pecos Trail joins two other projects announced within the past few weeks that target the same opportunity. Today we look at the gas side of the need for new takeaway pipelines out of the U.S.’s hottest shale play, and NAmerico’s newly announced plan to address it.

Tuesday, 03/28/2017

On Friday, TransCanada finally secured a Presidential Permit for the U.S. portion of its Keystone XL pipeline, and the company committed to pursuing the state approvals it still needs to build the project. But three hard truths—crude oil prices below $50/bbl, the high cost of producing bitumen and moving it to market, and more attractive energy investments available elsewhere—have thrown a wet blanket on once-ambitious plans to significantly expand production in Western Canada’s oil sands, the primary source of the product that would flow through Keystone XL. Today we begin a series on stagnating production growth in the world’s premier crude bitumen area, the odds for and against a rebound any time soon, and the need (or lack thereof) for more pipelines.

Wednesday, 03/22/2017

U.S. oil and natural gas exploration and production companies, anticipating continuing low crude oil and natural gas prices, have been reshaping their portfolios to focus on a half-dozen top-notch resource plays whose production economics can hold up even through the roughest of patches. The biggest of these asset purchases and sales grab the headlines, but countless other, smaller deals are having profound effects too. Taken together, this piranha-like devouring of E&P assets in the Permian Basin, SCOOP/STACK and other key production areas is transforming who owns what in the plays that matter most, and positioning a select group of E&Ps for success. Today we review highlights from “Piranha!” —a just-released market study from RBN.

Monday, 03/20/2017

The ability to increase the capacity of existing and planned crude oil pipelines with minimal capital expense has genuine appeal to midstream companies, producers and shippers alike. Enter drag reducing agents: special, long-chain polymers that are injected into crude oil pipelines to reduce turbulence, and thereby increase the pipes’ capacity, trim pumping costs or a combination of the two. DRAs are used extensively on refined products pipelines too. Today we continue our look at efforts to optimize pipeline efficiency and minimize capex through the expanded use of crude-oil and refined-product flow improvers.

Wednesday, 03/15/2017

Last week, crude oil prices dropped below $50/bbl, in part due to continued increases in U.S. crude oil inventories, and fell further over the next few days. Then yesterday, prices perked up by $1.14 to $48.86/bbl; again one of the factors was the weekly inventory number from the Energy Information Administration which showed inventories down by a fraction of a percentage point for the week. The market seems to react spontaneously to changes in that crude-stocks statistic. Up is bearish, down is bullish. These days even a very modest decline in inventories is bullish. But serious analysis requires a more detailed, more nuanced understanding of why crude oil inventories behave as they do. Were inventories driven up by higher production or lower refinery runs? By higher imports? By lower exports? The reasons behind the inventory change are more important than the change itself. Today we continue our series on the modeling of U.S. crude oil supply and demand, and the sourcing of input data used in those calculations.

Tuesday, 03/14/2017

New International Maritime Organization rules slashing allowable sulfur content in bunker fuels come January 2020 are expected to be a boon to complex refineries with coking units that can break residual high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) into low-sulfur middle distillates and other high-value products. The IMO rules also are expected to undermine the already shaky economics of many simpler refineries that don’t have cokers and are therefore left with a lot of residual HSFO. Today we conclude our blog series on the far-reaching effects of the new cap on bunker fuel sulfur content with a look at how the IMO rules will create winners and losers among refineries, and improve diesel refining margins.

Sunday, 03/12/2017

The latest sharp drop in crude oil prices, which was blamed in part on unexpected gains in already record-high U.S. inventories, is a stark reminder of the importance of understanding and routinely calculating estimates of the oil supply/demand balance. Only by keeping up with the ever-changing relationship between crude availability and crude consumption—and by anticipating shifts in that relationship—can oil traders and others whose daily success or failure depends on crude pricing trends make informed decisions. Today we begin a blog series on the modeling of U.S. crude oil supply and demand, and the sourcing of input data.

Wednesday, 03/08/2017

Last year was the best for global LNG demand growth since 2011, and a combination of ample LNG supply, new buyers and relatively low prices suggest that demand will continue rising at a healthy clip in 2017. That’s good news not only for LNG suppliers, but for natural gas producers and for developers planning the “second wave” of U.S. liquefaction/LNG export projects. Before those projects can advance, the world’s current—and still-growing—glut of LNG needs to be whittled down, and nothing whittles a supply glut like booming demand. Today we discuss ongoing changes in the LNG market and how they may well work to the advantage of U.S. gas producers and developers.

Tuesday, 03/07/2017

The expectation that crude oil production in the Permian Basin will continue growing has set off a competition among midstream companies, a number of which are known to be developing plans for additional pipeline takeaway capacity out of what is clearly America’s top-of-the-charts tight-oil play. One of the biggest topics of conversation the past few days has been the plan by EPIC Pipeline Co. to build a new crude pipeline from the Permian’s Delaware and Midland basins to planned storage/distribution and marine terminals in Corpus Christi. Today we detail EPIC’s plan and explain the rationale for the pipeline’s route and destination.

Monday, 03/06/2017

Much tougher rules governing emissions from ships plying international waters soon will force wrenching change on the energy industry. Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to plummet; ditto for HSFO prices. Demand for low-sulfur distillates from the shipping industry will rise sharply, putting upward pressure on prices for marine gas oil, marine diesel oil and ultra-low-sulfur diesel. These demand and pricing shifts, in turn, will have a number of significant effects on refiners. Today we continue our series on the far-reaching effects of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) mandate to slash emissions from tens of thousands of ships starting in January 2020.