The rapid growth in U.S. natural gas production and LNG exports over the past 10 years was just the beginning. Between now and 2035, gas production in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and other plays will continue rising, the Gulf Coast’s LNG export capacity will double and many new pipelines will be built. New gas-fired power plants will be added, too. The shifts in gas flows as new production and infrastructure come online will be frequent and often sudden, as will the changes in basis at gas hubs throughout Texas and Louisiana. Is there any way to make sense of it all? There sure is. In today’s RBN blog, we continue to explore how our Arrow Model helps guide the way.
Arrow Model
Monday, 3/31/2025
Over the next couple of years, six new pipelines and expansion projects will bring 11.8 Bcf/d of incremental natural gas supplies to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. During the same period, more than 8 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity will move that gas to international markets. The impact of this onslaught of gas flows will be anything but orderly. Inflows will never equal outflows. Pipes will arrive early with supplies, with LNG terminals coming along later. Gas flows will shift from west to east, and north to south, in chaotic patterns that will upend historical price relationships. Is there any way to make sense of all this? There sure is, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog. All you need is the right arrow pointing the way.
Wednesday, 12/25/2024
Negative natural gas prices have been breaking hearts in the Permian Basin for many years, with pipeline development struggling to keep pace with rapid increases in associated gas production, but 2024 has shattered all previous records for the severity and length of negatively priced periods. The Matterhorn Express Pipeline, which started partial service at the beginning of October, is helping to stabilize the market for now, but with more production gains on the way, additional takeaway capacity will be needed. And after this year’s run of negative prices, producers have been willing to commit to new capacity.
Tuesday, 12/17/2024
Negative natural gas prices have been breaking hearts in the Permian Basin for many years, with pipeline development struggling to keep pace with rapid increases in associated gas production, but 2024 has shattered all previous records for the severity and length of negatively priced periods. The Matterhorn Express Pipeline, which started partial service at the beginning of October, is helping to stabilize the market for now, but with more production gains on the way, additional takeaway capacity will be needed. And after this year’s run of negative prices, producers have been willing to commit to new capacity.
Tuesday, 2/20/2024
As mightily as U.S. LNG exports have impacted global trade dynamics, so have U.S. natural gas flows been reshaped by the pull toward Gulf Coast export terminals. The next new terminal on deck is Venture Global’s enormous Plaquemines facility in Louisiana, which could begin taking feedgas as early as late fall 2024 and will eventually ramp up to more than 2.6 Bcf/d. For Southeast Louisiana, home to a massive industrial corridor along the Mississippi River as well as the U.S. natural gas benchmark Henry Hub, the introduction of such a huge source of demand will change how gas flows into and out of the region — with knock-on effects across the Gulf Coast. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll turn once again to our Arrow Model to help illuminate what the path forward may look like.
Monday, 2/19/2024
Big changes are coming to the new epicenter of the global LNG market: Texas and Louisiana. On top of the existing 12.5 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity in the two states, another 11+ Bcf/d of additional capacity is planned by 2028. The good news is that the two major supply basins that will feed this LNG demand — the Permian and the Haynesville — will be growing, but unfortunately not quite as fast as LNG exports beyond 2024. And there’s another complication, namely that the two basins are hundreds of miles from the coastal LNG terminals, meaning that we’ll need to see lots of incremental pipeline capacity developed to move gas to the water.
Friday, 1/26/2024
Big changes are coming to the new epicenter of the global LNG market: Texas and Louisiana. On top of the existing 12.5 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity in the two states, another 11+ Bcf/d of additional capacity is planned by 2028. The good news is that the two major supply basins that will feed this LNG demand — the Permian and the Haynesville — will be growing, but unfortunately not quite as fast as LNG exports beyond 2024. And there’s another complication, namely that the two basins are hundreds of miles from the coastal LNG terminals, meaning that we’ll need to see lots of incremental pipeline capacity developed to move gas to the water.