Rising demand for electricity to serve data centers, manufacturing and other power-consuming sectors of the economy is spurring the development of scores of gas-fired plants — up to 100 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity by 2040. How much power those new plants will actually generate — and, with that, how much natural gas they will require — remain open questions, however. A recent study indicates that the vast majority of incremental power demand over the next 15 years could be supplied by solar and wind and that gas demand for power may remain pretty much flat. But the Trump administration’s dim view of most renewables — and clear preference for fossil fuels — suggest otherwise. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss gas demand for power in the late 2020s and 2030s.
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There’s been a lot of talk the past few months about artificial intelligence (AI) and plans by Microsoft, Google, Amazon and others to build a slew of data centers — energy hogs that would each require hundreds or even thousands of MW of electricity 24/7, 52 weeks a year. As we said in Storm Front, Dive In, We Should Be Friends and, most recently, Together In Electric Dreams, these “hyperscalers” have been considering the full gamut of power-generation sources for the juice they’ll need — everything from renewables to nuclear — and almost everyone believes gas-fired plants need to be part of the solution. Why? Because plants fueled by readily available, relatively low-cost and clean natural gas can be counted on to provide power around the clock — and to balance the ups and downs of solar and wind.
A number of major gas producers and just about every big midstreamer with a gas pipeline network have been talking up their plans to serve these new power plants, and several gas-fired projects — many tied directly to data-center demand — have already been announced.
A few studies have tried to get a handle on how much new generating capacity will be needed to keep pace with rising demand from new data centers, manufacturing plants and other electricity-intensive sectors, not to mention incremental demand from the electrification of U.S. space heating and transportation. One of the most comprehensive looks at this important topic was released in March by CI Consulting, a division of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
In its U.S. National Power Demand Study, which was sponsored by a broad range of energy industry and other players — the American Petroleum Institute, the Clean Energy Buyers Association, the Nuclear Energy Institute, the National Electrical Manufacturers Association, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce among them — CI Consulting said it expects on-grid electricity demand in the Lower 48 to increase from 4,170 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024 (right end of teal line in Figure 1 below) to between 4,734 and 4,970 TWh in 2030; 5,139 and 5,573 TWh in 2035; and 5,591 and 6,127 TWh in 2040 (orange-shaded range).
Historical and Forecast Lower 48 Electricity Demand
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About the song
“Only Happy When It Rains” was written by Garbage and appears as the third song on Garbage’s debut album, Garbage. The song was written by the band in Garbage guitarist Steve Marker’s basement recording studio in Madison, WI. The lyrics are a parody of the bleak songs full of angst that were popular in the early 1990s. A video directed by Samuel Beyer was shot in a warehouse with the band in Los Angeles and received heavy rotation on MTV upon release. Released as a single in September 1995, the song went to #16 on the Billboard Alternative Airplay chart and #55 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles chart. Personnel on the record were: Shirley Manson (vocals, guitar), Steve Marker (guitars, bass, samples, loops), Duke Erikson (guitars, keyboards, six-string bass, fuzz bass), and Butch Vig (drums, percussion, loops, noise, EFX).
The album, Garbage, was recorded between April 1994 and May 1995 at Smart Studio in Madison and was produced by Garbage. Released in August 1995, it went to #20 on the Billboard 200 Albums chart and has been certified 2X Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America. Five singles were released from the LP.
Garbage is an American rock band formed in Madison in 1993 by Butch Vig, Steve Marker, Duke Erikson, and Shirley Manson. The lineup in the band hasn’t changed since its formation, with all four band members involved in the songwriting and production of their music. The group has released seven studio albums, an EP, three compilation albums and 37 singles and has sold more than 17 million records worldwide. Garbage has won two Brit Awards and an MTV Video Music Award. Their next studio album, Let All That We Imagine Be the Light, is slated for release in May and will be accompanied by a U.S. tour that will begin in May and run through October.
Comments
It is hard to assess the demand for natural gas for power without attempting to assess the demand for natural gas for export as LNG. With the growth rate in Permian natural gas supply slowing, the question becomes whether low cost supply can easily meet the demand from LNG and also compete effectively with low-cost solar for electrical generation.