Negative natural gas prices have been breaking hearts in the Permian Basin for many years, with pipeline development struggling to keep pace with rapid increases in associated gas production, but 2024 has shattered all previous records for the severity and length of negatively priced periods. The Matterhorn Express Pipeline, which started partial service at the beginning of October, is helping to stabilize the market for now, but with more production gains on the way, additional takeaway capacity will be needed. And after this year’s run of negative prices, producers have been willing to commit to new capacity.
The RBN NATGAS Haynesville is a weekly natural gas fundamentals analysis focused on supply, flow, and LNG-driven demand dynamics within the Haynesville basin.
A whopping 4.57 Bcf/d of new pipeline capacity has secured final investment decisions (FIDs) since this summer, including two new greenfield pipelines — WhiteWater Midstream’s 2.5-Bcf/d Blackcomb pipeline took FID in August 2024, and then last week, Energy Transfer sanctioned the Hugh Brinson Pipeline, which will provide at least 1.5 Bcf/d of additional takeaway capacity. The incremental capacity provided by these projects will be needed soon, as our forecasts indicate a strong likelihood that capacity constraints will return in the early months of 2026. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss Energy Transfer’s newly renamed Hugh Brinson Pipeline — formerly the Warrior Pipeline — and other recent developments in the Permian and examine how they will reshape flows and basis throughout the wider region.
The first nine months of 2024 gave as clear a demonstration as has ever been seen of what happens when gas production rises to the point that takeaway capacity out of the region is insufficient. This includes a streak of 39 days between late July and early September where Waha cash prices were negative, according to data from Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). During that streak, Waha cash averaged minus $1.74/MMBtu, including a record nadir of minus $6.41/MMBtu on the long Labor Day weekend. Over the nine-month period, the outright price of natural gas at Waha (the main gas pricing hub in the Permian) was negative for more than 43% of all trading days. During those days of negative pricing, Permian producers who were not bound by long-term contracts were paying to have their gas taken away. In a gas-focused region like Appalachia and the Haynesville, this would have brought drilling-and-completion work to a halt. However, even with negative gas prices, Permian producers that are exposed to spot prices still bring in ample revenue from crude oil and NGLs, and ramped-up deterrence on flaring gives them no real choice but to pay to have someone take their gas off their hands — a phenomenon we have documented in the NATGAS Permian Report.
Figure 1. Selected Gas Pipelines and Sanctioned Projects in Texas. Source. RBN
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About the song
“Who Do You Love” was written by Ellas McDaniel (Bo Diddley) and appears as the fifth song on side two of Bo Diddley’s debut studio album, Bo Diddley. It was released as a single in 1956. Bo Diddley wrote the song in Kansas City after observing a group of children out-bragging each other by making up song lyrics over a unique rhythm pattern. Inspired by Muddy Waters’s “Hoochie Coochie Man,” he compiled the song’s lyrics using images of skulls, rattlesnakes, tombstones, and Southern hoodoo folk-magic lore. Personnel on the record were: Bo Diddley (lead vocal, rhythm tremolo guitar), John Williams (lead guitar), Clifton James (drums), and Jerome Green (maracas). Many artists have covered the song, including Ronnie Hawkins & the Hawks, Quicksilver Messenger Service (whose 25-minute live jam of the song occupies side one of their “Happy Trails” live LP), and George Thorogood & the Destroyers. Quicksilver released an edited-down 3:55-minute version as a single in 1969 that reached #91 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles chart. It was the only charting single for the band and the only time “Who Do You Love” made the Billboard Singles chart.
Bo Diddley was the debut album by the artist of the same name. It was recorded between March 1955 and January 1958 and combined his singles into a powerful introductory LP for fans of his music. It’s a fiery representation of early rock and roll, revolutionary music for rumbles at the drive-in and illicit activities in the backseat of a 1955 Ford Fairlane. Produced by Leonard Chess, Phil Chess and Bo Diddley, the album was released in March 1958. It has been reissued several times and is still in print on Chess Records. In 2022, the album was inducted into the Blues Hall of Fame.
Bo Diddley (Ellas McDaniel) was an American rock and roll singer, guitarist and songwriter who was one of the pioneers of rock and roll music. His use of African rhythms and his signature “Bo Diddley beat” were the soundtrack for American teenagers in the late 1950s. He started his musical journey playing street corners in Chicago with his longtime friend and cohort, Jerome Green. He released his first single, “Bo Diddley,” in March 1955 on Chess Records. He released 27 studio albums, six live albums, 25 compilation albums and 37 singles. He is a member of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, Rockabilly Hall of Fame, and Blues Hall of Fame, and has a Grammy Lifetime Achievement Award, and a BMI Icon Award. Bo Diddley died at his home in Archer, FL, in June 2008 at the age of 79.
