End markets for Canadian crude oil have evolved as production and export capacity have grown, especially in the past few years as more Western Canadian crude has moved off the continent. In today’s RBN blog, the fourth in a series, we’ll dig deep into the data to see exactly where Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) crude oil supply goes, how it gets there, and how those destination markets have evolved over time. What we’ll present is not the typical assessment you’ll see elsewhere that cites commonly referenced statistics. Instead, we’ve waded through several data sources to piece together a more accurate analysis of where these barrels ultimately end up, adjusting for nuances that are often overlooked. We’ll also distinguish between where the heavy and lighter barrels go. This will establish a baseline so that in future blogs we can look at how each of the proposed WCSB export capacity growth options might impact market dynamics, which is especially topical these days given how the turmoil in the Middle East is disrupting global crude oil flows.
Canadian crude oil has been a popular topic in the RBN blogosphere since the beginning of the year. In Part 1 of this series, we discussed the drivers behind WCSB crude oil production nearly doubling from 2010 to 2025, as well as its seasonal trends. In Part 2, we reviewed the major pipeline projects that expanded capacity to move barrels out of the WCSB, how the timing of those projects matched up with supply growth, and current export pipeline capacity. In Part 3, we examined how WCSB crude oil price discounts are impacted by pipeline scarcity and production seasonality.
Canadian crude output is rising, requiring new export routes. As traditional pathways face constraints, the U.S. Rockies—especially the Guernsey, WY hub—are emerging as key corridors for moving Canadian heavy crude to downstream markets, including the Gulf Coast.
Join our free webinar at 2 pm Central on Wednesday, April 1, when we’ll be discussing our new multi-client study, Roundabout! – Canada-To-Rockies Crude Flows Reshaping the PADD 4 Guernsey Market, which looks at potential options to expand pipeline egress through PADD 4.
In today’s blog, let’s start by recapping the pipelines that move crude oil out of the WCSB, a region that spans west to east from northeastern British Columbia (BC), through Alberta and Saskatchewan, to western Manitoba. Figure 1 below shows the main North American pipeline systems moving WCSB crude oil. The largest pipeline export conduit is the Enbridge Mainline (light-pink lines), which moved about 3 MMb/d of crude oil out of the WCSB in 2025 (70% heavy), of which approximately 2.4 MMb/d went to the U.S. PADD 2 (Midwest) and PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) markets, while the remainder was delivered back into Canada at the Ontario border to feed pipeline-connected refineries in Ontario, Quebec, and Pennsylvania.
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About the song
“Turn Me Loose” was written by Paul Dean and Mike Reno and appears as the second song on side one of Loverboy’s eponymous debut studio album. The song is built around a bass riff and features crunchy guitar by Paul Dean and the plaintive vocals of Mike Reno. Released as the first single from the album in February 1981, it went to #6 on the Billboard Pop Rock Tracks chart and #35 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles. Personnel on the record were: Mike Reno (lead vocals), Paul Dean (guitars, backing vocals), Scott Smith (bass), Doug Johnson (keyboards), Matt Frenette (drums), and Nancy Nash and Katie Kissoon (backing vocals).
The album, Loverboy, was recorded in 1979-80 at Little Mountain Sound in Vancouver and produced by Bruce Fairbairn. Released in the U.S. in November 1980, it went to #13 on the Billboard 200 Albums chart and has been certified 2X Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America. Three singles were released from the LP.
Loverboy is a Canadian hard rock band formed in Calgary, AB, in 1979. After opening shows for major rock acts in Canada, the group was signed to a record deal with Columbia Records Canada in 1979 and released their debut album, Loverboy, in the U.S. in November 1980. They have released nine studio albums, four live albums, 16 compilation albums, and 29 singles and have sold more than 15 million records worldwide. Seven members have passed through the band since its formation. Bassist Scott Smith was presumed dead after a large wave swept him off his boat near San Francisco in November 2000 at 45. (His body has never been recovered.) Bassist Jim Clench died in November 2010 in Montreal at 61. After a hiatus from 1989 to 1991, Loverboy continues to tour and will be appearing at various venues in the U.S. beginning in June.
"About the Song" -- written by Mickey McMahan , RBN Director of Musicology
