The U.S. propane market is in a unique position today. Production has continued to grow while domestic demand remains stagnant. The only solution for the market to balance is exports; however, those have been constrained by capacity at the dock. This combination of factors has left propane storage extremely high. In today’s RBN blog, the second in a two-part series, we continue our examination of the factors affecting the propane market and the expectations for storage dynamics through the end of the year.
In Part 1 of this blog series, we reviewed recent supply/demand dynamics of the U.S. propane industry. The three most important takeaways of that post were that (1) production continues to grow but is not expected to surge as a result of the war with Iran; (2) export levels are forecast to increase with the startup of Enterprise’s expansion of its EHT terminal on the Houston Ship Channel; and (3) storage levels are extremely high in today’s market. In Part 2, we will begin by examining export economics and how they are calculated. After that, we will wrap the story up with the outlook for 2026 storage levels.
Export economics are a key metric to watch because they help illustrate how strong the markets to Asia and Europe are. There are four key metrics influencing export economics, measured here as the arbitrage (or spread) between U.S. and Asian/European prices. The first is the cost of U.S. propane, the second is shipping costs, the third is the dock fee, and the fourth is the price of propane in Europe or Asia. In today’s analysis, the focus will be on economics with Asia.
Figure 1. Non-TET Mont Belvieu Propane Price. Source: OPIS
Most Energy Executives See Strait of Hormuz Closure Lasting into Summer: Dallas Fed Energy Survey
Energy market executives expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to eventually normalize, although most believe it will take time, according to an update to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ quarterly survey published April 23. Of the executives surveyed, 20% expect traffic through the strait to return to normal levels during May, 39% expect recovery by August, 26% by November and 14% later than that.
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About the song
“Leave the Door Open” was written by Bruno Mars, Brandon Anderson, Dernst Emile II and Christopher Brody Brown. It appears as the second song on Silk Sonic’s debut album, An Evening with Silk Sonic. The Philly-soul-inspired R&B song is about an invitation for a romantic interest to come over. Released as the first single from the album in March 2021, it went to #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles chart and has been certified 2X Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA). It won Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best R&B Performance and Best R&B Song at the 64th Grammy Awards. Personnel on the record were: Bruno Mars (vocals, guitar, congas), Anderson .Paak (vocals, drums), D’Miles (piano), Christopher Brody Brown (bass), Ella Feingold (guitar) and Larry Gold (string arrangements).
An Evening with Silk Sonic is the debut studio album of the superduo of Anderson .Paak and Bruno Mars. Recorded in 2020 and 2021 at Shampoo Press & Curl Studios in Los Angeles, it was produced by Bruno Mars, D'Miles and The Stereotypes. The album was released in November 2021 and went to #1 on the Billboard Top R&B/Hip-Hop and #2 on the Billboard 200 Albums charts. It has been certified Platinum by the RIAA. Four singles were released from the LP.
Silk Sonic is an American superduo composed of Brun Miles and Anderson .Paak. The two met in 2017 and began work on their debut album in 2020. They have released one studio album and five singles. Mars performed five Silk Sonic songs on his 2026 The Romantic Tour with .Paak, who has commented that “Silk Sonic always has a place to put out more music.”
"About the Song" -- written by Mickey McMahan , RBN Director of Musicology
