The conflict involving Iran has pushed international NGL and LPG prices sharply higher, increasing demand for U.S. exports as global buyers look for replacement supply. We covered this topic in-depth in the blog linked here. But while higher international benchmarks initially strengthened the economics for U.S.-to-Asia shipments at the start of the conflict, that has quickly changed as the war dragged on.
The figure below shows the spot arbitrage for Asia-bound cargoes by comparing the cost to export — calculated as the sum of the spot freight rate, terminal fees, and LST propane at Mont Belvieu (stacked columns) — with the change in the Prompt +1 Far East Index (FEI) benchmark price between January 2, 2026, before the war, and March 2, 2026, the Monday after the conflict began. In the first few weeks of the war, the spot arbitrage widened significantly, even as Mont Belvieu propane prices and spot USGC resale differentials (terminal fees) rose.
