Way back in the spring of this year, propane prices were behaving themselves. Mont Belvieu values were high relative to the previous two years, but no higher than what they ought to be with crude oil up to the mid-$70s/bbl range, as it was back then. Yet, market players were uncomfortable. Production was flat, exports were strong, and inventories were not increasing fast enough to get balances where they needed to be by winter. At that point the market got nervous and started bidding the price of propane higher. When exports continued at high rates and it looked like $100/bbl crude was a real possibility, propane buyers went into a feeding frenzy, and by early October propane prices blasted to levels not seen in a decade. Then the market calmed down. Weekly inventory numbers from EIA started to look like they might be OK after all, exports backed off, and propane prices started to decline. That’s supposed to happen toward the end of heating season, not at the beginning. The frenzy soon turned into a rout in a counter-seasonal price move egged on by concern about the COVID-Omicron variant that saw propane collapsing by 35% over a five-week period. All that price action happened during the summer and fall, instead of during the winter, as it usually does. We just got ahead of ourselves. So, what happens next? That is what we will consider in today’s RBN blog, which is Part 2 of our Different Drum NGL blog series.
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School of Energy: Foundations is a two day, in person conference designed to help energy professionals better understand the forces shaping crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, refined products, and petrochemicals.
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We started this blog series by comparing the trajectories for U.S. crude oil, natural gas, and NGL production, and concluded that NGL production has been the most resilient of the three energy commodity groups. Compared to 2019, crude production is still down and natural gas has been flat, while NGLs are up 10%. But much of the increase has come from ethane — compared to midyear 2020, propane production from gas processing is up only 1%.
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About the song
“Ahead of Ourselves” was written by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. It appears as the second song on Nine Inch Nails’ ninth studio album, Bad Witch. The band debuted the song live at a show in June 2018 at The Joint in Las Vegas — it was the only song from Bad Witch that was performed live before the album’s release. It is thought that the line, “celebration of ignorance,” came from astronomer Carl Sagan’s book, The Demon-Haunted World. Personnel on the record were: Trent Reznor (vocals, production, programming, saxophone), and Atticus Ross (production, programming).
Bad Witch was recorded in early 2018 and released in June 2018. It went to #2 on the Billboard Top Alternative and Top Rock Albums charts, and #12 on the Billboard 200 Albums chart. The record was influenced by David Bowie’s final LP, Blackstar. Reznor had collaborated with Bowie in the 1990s. It was the last in a trilogy of releases, following Nine Inch Nails’ previous two EPs. One single, “God Break Down the Door,” was released from the LP.
Nine Inch Nails (NIN) is an American industrial rock band formed in Cleveland in 1988 by singer, multi-instrumentalist and producer Trent Reznor. Sixteen members have passed through the group since its formation. Reznor was the only permanent member of the group until the addition of Atticus Ross in 2016. They have released 11 studio albums, one live album, one soundtrack album, six EPs, and 19 singles. NIN has sold more than 20 million albums worldwide. The band has won two Academy Awards, one Emmy Award, one Golden Globe Award, and two Grammy Awards. They were inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 2020. Reznor and Ross continue to record and tour with Nine Inch Nails. The duo is also actively involved in scoring motion pictures and television shows, to which they have devoted much of their time over the last few years.
