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Manfred Jeske
Energy Intelligence Analyst
RBN

Manfred Jeske is a fundamental energy analyst and developer of energy market models. He previously worked for capSpire as Commodity Trading & Risk Management consultant, working at companies including Anadarko Petroleum and ARB Midstream. He started his career as a chemical engineer with Exterran designing gas processing plants. Manfred holds a BS in Chemical Engineering from the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville where he played D1 Tennis.

Posts by Manfred Jeske
- Blog

Higher - Mont Belvieu Propane Prices Top $1 a Gallon; How High Will They Need to Go?

Author Manfred Jeske

Propane prices at Mont Belvieu soared above $1/gallon on Wednesday — the first time that’s happened in the month of June since 2014. This buck-and-change price doesn’t come as much of a surprise for industry insiders, however. U.S. propane inventories have been very skinny lately, sitting at 56.2 MMbbl — or only 587 Mbbl above the five-year minimum based on yesterday’s EIA data. At the same time, propane exports have been riding high, averaging 1.3 MMb/d so far this year, up nearly 90 Mb/d from the same time frame in 2020, while production has remained virtually flat over the past 18 months. Surprise or not, the spike past $1/gal raises an important question: How high will U.S. propane prices have to go before exports are reined in so U.S. inventories can increase? Today, we discuss the key drivers behind the current price level and our propane market outlook for the second half of the year.