The European Union (EU) appears poised to substantially increase its imports of U.S. LNG after reaching a trade deal with the Trump administration that includes a pledge to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy over three years. The trade agreement and the EU’s plans to phase out deliveries of Russian LNG and piped-in natural gas by 2027 may end up being a big positive for U.S. producers. But that doesn’t mean it’s all clear sailing, thanks to competition with Qatar and uncertainty around EU regulations. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how U.S. exporters could still get squeezed on price and volume between today and 2030.
In our first piece examining the future of the European gas market and its demand for LNG we looked at the EU’s continued efforts to reduce its reliance on Russia and how it is trading supply risk for price risk. Just a few years ago, Russia was annually exporting 150 billion cubic meters (Bcm; 14.5 Bcf/d) of natural gas to Europe, including pipeline gas and LNG. But volumes have declined sharply, first due to the damage inflicted on the offshore Nord Stream pipelines that connect Russia and Germany and then from the termination (at the end of 2024) of the last agreement to move Russian gas through Ukraine via pipeline to other parts of Europe.
Visualize the infrastructure behind U.S. NGL movement.
The U.S. NGLs Map provides a comprehensive view of the transport, processing, and export networks moving NGLs across the U.S.
We followed that up by looking at the increasing difficulty in predicting EU gas demand and what it means for U.S. exporters and the rest of the global market. The EU has adopted two separate plans that aim to reduce its use of fossil fuels — Fit for 55 and REPowerEU — which both call for the cessation of Russian gas and LNG imports by the end of 2027, but with significant differences in how much imported LNG the EU will need in the coming years.
In today’s blog, we turn our focus to Europe’s gas market and the outlook for LNG demand. While the recently announced trade deal is designed to strengthen the relationship between the U.S. and the EU, the Sankey diagram in Figure 1 below demonstrates that a clear interdependence between U.S. supply and European demand (large, horizontal blue link from top left to top right) is already well-established. The EU is the closest large-scale market for U.S.-sourced LNG and the bloc’s continuing trade deficit with the U.S. — $236 billion in 2024 — presents a clear opportunity for U.S.-sourced LNG. We should note, however, that the EU's pledge to increase its imports of U.S. energy to $250 billion per year seems unlikely to be met. Overall, U.S. energy exports totaled $328 billion in 2024, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission, with only four European countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain) among the top 15 importers.
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About the song
“Turn the Page” was written by Bob Seger and first appeared as the fifth cut on side one of his sixth studio album, Back in ’72. However, the song would receive more radio airplay when it was included on Seger’s 1976 live album, Live Bullet. Drummer David Teegarden says Seger wrote this song after an incident at a truck stop when Seger was touring with the Tulsa band Teegarden, Van Winkle & Bruce backing him. En route to their next show, some truck drivers at the truck stop’s diner hassled them and made derogatory comments about their long hair and appearance. By the next day, Seger had written “Turn the Page” about the event.
Back in ’72 was recorded at Leon Russell’s Paradise Studios in Tia Juana, OK; Pampa Studios in Warren, MI; and Muscle Shoals Studios in Muscle Shoals, AL. Produced by Punch Andrews and Bob Seger, the album was released in January 1973 and went to #188 on the Billboard Top 200 Albums chart. Personnel on the record were: Bob Seger (lead vocals, guitar), Dick Sims (Hammond organ, bass pedals, piano and Clavinet), Jamie Oldaker (drums), Sergio Pastora (percussion), Alto Reed (saxophones and flute) and Marcy Levy (background vocals). Oldaker and Levy would record with Leon Russell, and then join Sims in becoming part of Eric Clapton’s band later in the 1970s.
Live Bullet was recorded at Cobo Hall in Detroit in September 1975 and released in April 1976. The record was produced by Punch Andrews and Bob Seger. Now billed as Bob Seger and the Silver Bullet Band, this live showcase of Seger's talents went to #34 on the Top 200 Albums chart. The considerable amount of radio airplay it received helped prime the way for Seger to become a national star with his next LP release, Night Moves. “Turn the Page” was one of the highlights from the live album. The personnel on Live Bullet were: Bob Seger (lead vocals, guitar, piano), Drew Abbott (lead guitar, backing vocals), Alto Reed (saxophones, backing vocals), Robyn Robins (keyboards), Chris Campbell (bass, backing vocals) and Charlie Martin (drums, backing vocals).
Metallica covered the song and released it as a single in November 1998 from their Garage Inc. album. It went to #1 on the Billboard Mainstream Rock Singles chart.
Bob Seger is an American singer, songwriter and musician from Detroit. He has released 18 studio albums, two live albums, seven compilation albums and 68 singles. Seger has sold more than 75 million records worldwide and is a member of the Songwriters Hall of Fame, the Michigan Rock and Roll Legends Hall of Fame and the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. He has won one Grammy Award and concluded his Roll Me Away final tour in November 2019.
"About the Song" -- written by Mickey McMahan , RBN Director of Musicology
