U.S. carbon-capture efforts are expected to peak at about 70 million metric tons per year by 2039, due in large part to the 45Q tax credit for permanent carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a report July 18 that cited its Annual Energy Outlook 2025.
The EIA’s Reference case (black line in chart below) sees capture rates increasing sharply in the early 2030s, then beginning a slow decline in the 2040s. Captured emissions are highest in the High Oil Price case, peaking at 112 million MT, and lowest in the Alternative Electricity case, topping out at 56 million MT. The Alternative Electricity case has less capture activity because it does not model Clean Air Act regulations implemented in 2024, which effectively require carbon capture for coal and natural gas power plants. The Environmental Protection Agency recently proposed to repeal the rule.
