Refinery Runs & Net Imports Plummet Last Week

Venezuela took center stage last weekend when President Trump removed and arrested President Nicolás Maduro, putting a spotlight on the country’s oil resources and production. Today we take a deep dive into how we think the upheaval could reshape crude oil flows, price differentials, refining slates and export economics.

U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025, up nearly 1.6 MMb/d from 2023, but crude export volumes remained remarkably stable — at or very near 4.1 MMb/d — until a recent Iran-related surge. A key reason: “capacity creep” expansion projects at several Gulf Coast refineries.

One of the biggest questions surrounding Venezuela centers on its now-moribund oil sector, which has suffered from decades of neglect. It’s widely understood that a recovery will take time, but there are some concrete steps that could boost production in the short, medium and long term.