Over the past few years, normal butane imports into PADD 5 from Canada have doubled at their winter peak. Back in the winters of 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, PADD 5 Canadian butane imports peaked at around 20 Mb/d. Every winter since, normal butane imports have surpassed the previous year by at least 5 Mb/d (see chart below).
PADD 5 Imports of Normal Butane from Canada. Source: EIA
So, what’s changed? Looking at imports by company reveals an interesting development. Previously the majority of butane imported into PADD 5 was from AltaGas (light-blue area in chart below) most of which is likely heading to their LPG export facility in Ferndale, WA which unlike AltaGas’s export terminals in Canada, has the ability to export butane. This has stayed relatively flat over the past 4 years. What now makes up a larger slice of the pie is butane imported by traders and marketers (light-green area in chart below) and refiners, namely P66 and to a lesser extent, Marathon (dark-green area in chart below).
PADD 5 Imports of Normal Butane from Canada by Company. Source: EIA
Over the past few years, Northern California has lost roughly 240 Mb/d of conventional crude refining capacity through the conversion of the Marathon Martinez (2020) and P66 Rodeo (2024) refineries into renewable diesel / SAF facilities. Not to mention, the Valero Benecia refinery in San Fransico shut down in February resulting in an additional 145-170 Mb/d of refining capacity offline. With lower refinery butane supply in PADD 5, additional butane imports from Canada are going to be required to meet gasoline blending demand. It’s likely this seasonal trend will continue, especially given the lack of NGL pipeline infrastructure from the rest of the U.S. into PADD 5.
