Oil Production Begins at Whale Platform in Gulf of Mexico

It’s often said that the offshore Gulf of Mexico is a different animal than its onshore counterparts, especially shale and tight-oil plays like the Permian and the Bakken. Decisions to invest in new production in the GOM aren’t based on crude oil demand and price forecast for the next two or three years; they’re based on expectations for the next two or three decades. Well, 30 years from now will be 2051, a year after Shell and a number of other energy companies have pledged to achieve “net-zero” carbon emissions. What does decarbonization mean for future development in the offshore Gulf, where the upfront capital costs are enormous and wells can be prolific producers for many, many years. In today’s blog, we discuss the final investment decision (FID) on Shell’s Whale project in the western Gulf of Mexico and the prospects for further development in the GOM.

In the stormiest market environment for crude oil in many years, it’s hard to find a spot where the sailing is smooth. If even-keel conditions exist anywhere in the oil-producing world today, it might be the offshore Gulf of Mexico, where producer decisions to invest in new platforms or subsea tiebacks are based on very long-term oil-price expectations and the production, once initiated, is steady. In the second half of the 2010s, Gulf producers significantly reduced the average breakeven prices needed to justify their most promising new investments — from more than $55/bbl back in 2015 to less than $35/bbl today. Given what’s happened to crude oil prices the past few days, however, it’s logical to wonder whether any of even the best prospective Gulf of Mexico projects will be sanctioned this year. Today, we discuss how cost-cutting and efficiency improvements have made the offshore Gulf a comparatively steady, growing base of U.S. crude oil production that so far has been less vulnerable than shale output to oil-price gyrations.

Work continues on several major deep- and shallow-water crude oil production projects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM), despite the fact that oil prices are far lower than they were when the commitments to develop these projects were made. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for prompt delivery closed yesterday on the CME/NYMEX futures market at $26.55/Bbl – its lowest level since May 2003 – threatening to strangle resilient domestic onshore shale production. Yet GOM production levels will rise again this year--and likely for at least another couple of years—offsetting some of the expected decline in onshore U.S. crude output.  Today, we continue our examination of steadily rising crude output in the GOM with a look at projects coming online in 2016 and beyond.