Mont Belvieu, TX propane prices have recently moved to a 5–6 c/gal premium over Conway, KS, a pronounced widening from the long-term average differential of about 2.5 c/gal. As shown in the graph below, the orange line (Mont Belvieu) has pulled steadily above the blue line (Conway) since late March, opening a gap that is larger than normal for this time of year. Mont Belvieu usually trades at a small premium because of Gulf Coast export demand which now absorb roughly 70% of total U.S. propane production. But Conway often strengthens relative to the Gulf Coast during winter, when cold Midwest weather boosts regional demand and keeps barrels closer to home.

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