A majority of the crude oil shipped by tanker from the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMP) has been sent to the U.S. (blue bars in chart below) since the pipeline’s expansion came into service in late May 2024. Based on data from Bloomberg spanning May to October 2024, tanker shipments from TMP to the U.S. have averaged 145 Mb/d, or a 49% share of all shipments. Over the same time period, shipments to China (red bars) have averaged 113 Mb/d (38% share), 21 Mb/d to Korea (green bars, 7% share), 9 Mb/d to India (purple bars, 3% share), and to Other nations (yellow bars), a 3% share or 9 Mb/d. Two countries, Ecuador and Brunei, have fallen into the Other category for crude shipped from TMP although these nations may have transferred these cargoes or diverted them to another destination than that identified by Bloomberg. Note that this data covers tanker shipments only and does not include crude oil that is shipped overland to Washington state using the Trans Mountain Puget Sound pipeline which connects to TMP at Sumas, WA.
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Both Sides Now - Has the Trans Mountain Expansion Shifted Western Canada’s Crude Oil Exports?
After a decade-long odyssey and a cost-per-mile that must make public-sector accountants in Ottawa wince, the Canadian government-owned Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX) — which nearly tripled the capacity of the original Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMP) from Alberta to the British Columbia (BC) coast — finally came into service in May 2024. As one of Canada’s most anticipated energy infrastructure projects in many years, the 590-Mb/d TMX pipeline — built alongside the long-standing 300-Mb/d TMP — was widely touted by its advocates as a surefire way to boost exports of Western Canadian crude and reduce the nation’s near-complete reliance on exporting crude oil to — and through — its primary customer, the U.S. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss some of the surprising (and not so surprising) market developments since the expansion project started.
Lost Without You - Canada's Trans Mountain Pipeline Restarting After Three-Week Shutdown
Trans Mountain Pipeline, the only pipeline that connects crude oil production areas in Alberta to Canada’s West Coast and the U.S. Pacific Northwest, has started to resume operations after a three-week shutdown. The pipeline closure — the longest in TMP’s 68-year history — began November 14 after major flooding exposed portions of the 300-Mb/d conduit, which also carries some refined products. Fortunately, Trans Mountain did not suffer any severe damage, breaks, or spills, and its operators were able to initiate a phased restart on December 5 at reduced pressures. Full service is expected to be restored soon. So what happens when a primary source of crude oil to five refineries — four in Washington state and one in British Columbia — is removed from service with little notice? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the impacts.
You've Got Another Thing Comin', Part 2 - Trans Mountain Expansion Faces More Logistical Challenges
The 590-Mb/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project, which is inching closer to its planned early 2024 completion, has been one of the most eagerly anticipated energy infrastructure projects in recent Canadian memory. Preliminary tolls for shipping crude on the expanded pipeline system, submitted to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) in June, are multiples higher than the tolls currently charged on the original 300-Mb/d Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMP), possibly undermining oil producers’ economics for shipping and exporting crude on the combined 890-Mb/d system. However, the higher tolls are not the only concern. Serious logistical challenges remain in the form of restricted tanker sizes, a circuitous route for ships traveling from the open ocean to the Westridge export terminal near Burnaby, BC, and even a very tight passage under two bridges, all of which will add costs and time for each exported barrel. In today’s RBN blog, we provide more details on the complexities surrounding crude oil exports via the Trans Mountain pipeline system.
